Why the underdog Raptors will cover without Fred VanVleet for Game 5 in Philadelphia

Toronto lost the first two games in Philly by an average of 17.5 points.

Toronto Raptors guard Fred VanVleet has been ruled out of Game 5 against the Philadelphia 76ers on Monday due to a hip flexor strain.

VanVleet suffered the injury in the first half of Game 4, which Toronto held on to win without him. Now down 3-1 in the series, the Raptors go back to Philadelphia without their All-Star guard but with a little more confidence after playing things a lot closer at home. Fighting for their playoff lives, I’m still picking them to cover as 7.5-point underdogs on Tipico Sportsbook.

VanVleet has played well below his regular-season standard this series, averaging six points fewer in the playoffs on just 35% from the field. And even with his struggles, particularly the last two games — 17 points, 5-of-19 (26%), 3-of-13 on 3-pointers — Toronto has a plus-five combined scoring margin in Games 3 and 4.

Things played out differently in Philly, where Toronto lost Games 1 and 2 by an average of 17.5 points, but there’s reason to believe Monday’s game won’t go that way. Tyrese Maxey was incredible to start the series but has come back to earth in recent games, scoring a combined 30 points the last two games after putting up 38 in Game 1 alone. And Joel Embiid is dealing with a torn ligament that will require surgery after the season.

It’s unclear exactly how much Embiid’s injury is impacting his play, but it’s surely having some effect. He had just 21 points and a series-low eight rebounds in Game 4. It was his lowest scoring output since Game 1, when he scored 19 points in a 20-point victory. It took a combined 64 points from Maxey and Tobias Harris to overcome his low production in that game. If Embiid is limited again, I don’t see Philadelphia winning by as much this time around.

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