Monday night’s matchup between the New England Patriots and the Buffalo Bills is the first of two this season between the AFC East’s two best teams, and those two games will have a lot to say about how a conference in which there is no one dominant team shakes out. You could say that the Patriots are the team of the moment with their 8-4 record, and their six straight wins (by an average score of 35-10), and their ability to put things together in every facet of the game.
The Bills are rolling with the NFL’s best defense by DVOA, and that’s been the case all season, but the Patriots are right on their heels — and with the loss of star cornerback Tre’Davious White for the rest of the season to a knee injury, there’s a new and unfortunate vulnerability. The passing game has been hit-and-miss, the run game must be schemed up to succeed, and Buffalo, which held a 5-2 record after their Week 8 win over the Dolphins, are 2-2 since. One of those losses was a greasy embarrassment against the Jaguars, but the real soul-stealer was a 41-15 Week 10 demolition at the hands of the Colts in which running back Jonathan Taylor set a franchise record with five touchdowns — four on the ground, and one through the air.
It wasn’t just Taylor who was great against the Bills; it was Indianapolis’ entire offensive structure for their run game. Taylor’s big plays were blocked up about as well as they could be, and even for a defense that has been one of the best against the run this season, there’s no real counter for that.
This is an important note for Monday night’s game, because if the Colts don’t have the league’s most dominant rushing attack right now, it might be because the Patriots do. That starts up front with an outstanding offensive line, it extends to the factor of fullback Jakob Johnson, and it all benefits Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson, two great power/speed backs.
Harris has 643 rushing yards and eight touchdowns this season on 154 carries; he’s averaged 2.9 yards per carry after contact, and he’s forced 30 missed tackles. Stevenson spent a bit of his rookie season in Bill Belichick’s doghouse, but he’s figured that out, and he’s gained 351 yards and scored three touchdowns on just 76 carries. The Oklahoma alum has averaged 3.2 yards after contact per carry, with 16 forced missed tackles.
It’s a load to deal with, and as great as Buffalo’s defense has been throughout the season, it’s going to be an issue for them when this game kicks off.