There is no definitive way to answer the question that’s tearing up college football right now: Should Alabama make the College Football Playoff?
All answers to that are subjective because — in addition to considering a team’s win-loss record, its strength of schedule, head-to-head matchups, common opponents and, eventually, conference championships — the members of the selection committee rely on their own evaluations.
“We watch the games,” committee chair and Oregon athletics director Rob Mullens explained last week after the first College Football Playoff rankings debuted. “We evaluate data and statistics, and in the end, each expert uses his or her judgment to rank the teams based on who they think is best.”
Based on the committee’s own criteria, judgment aside, Alabama is not a playoff team, even if it wins out.
The Crimson Tide — who dropped to No. 5 from No. 3 in the CFP rankings this week — still have a reasonable path to the playoff and a surprisingly high chance to make it after losing to LSU in Week 11. But they need outside help now. The committee either needs to make an “eye-test” call to put the Crimson Tide among the top-4 teams, or other playoff hopefuls need to lose. But we couldn’t even feign surprise if the selection committee found a reason to put them in the playoff for the sixth straight year.
With committee’s criteria in mind, let’s take a deeper look at how Alabama matches up against its competition in the fight for the fourth playoff spot behind LSU, Ohio State and Clemson, barring any further upsets.
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Top-10 College Football Playoff rankings: Week 12
1. LSU (9-0)
2. Ohio State (9-0)
3. Clemson (10-0)
4. Georgia (8-1)
5. Alabama (8-1)
6. Oregon (8-1)
7. Utah (8-1)
8. Minnesota (9-0)
9. Penn State (8-1)
10. Oklahoma (8-1)
Alabama’s primary competition for that last spot is Georgia, Oregon, Oklahoma and Minnesota. In addition to assuming the Crimson Tide win out, let’s also say the Ducks are one-loss Pac-12 champions, the Sooners are one-loss Big 12 champions and the Golden Gophers’ only loss is to Ohio State in the Big Ten title game.
That leaves Georgia. Should the Bulldogs end up winning the SEC — they’d probably have to beat LSU — Alabama is truly done. The SEC could also get two teams in with that situation. But we’re assuming LSU wins the conference because it’s Alabama’s best-case scenario, and that would be Georgia’s second loss, likely pushing it out of the playoff picture.
So it’s really just Alabama vs. Oregon vs. Oklahoma vs. Minnesota.
Win-loss record
Under the assumption that Alabama’s best-case scenario in the SEC plays out, we’re looking at two one-loss conference champs in Oregon and Oklahoma against one-loss Alabama and one-loss Minnesota, neither of which have a conference title. The Crimson Tide would be 11-1, while Oregon, Oklahoma and Minnesota would be 12-1.
After Week 11, Alabama’s strength of record 10th, Oregon’s is eighth, Oklahoma’s is 15th and Minnesota’s is fourth.
Advantage: Oregon, Oklahoma, Minnesota
Strength of schedule
The Crimson Tide’s strength of schedule is ranked No. 39 nationally, which is not as low as Clemson at No. 69 but certainly not as high as LSU at No. 19. Alabama is ranked higher than Oklahoma (No. 55) but not Oregon (No. 33).
After losing to LSU, Alabama is now in a position to have only one win over a ranked opponent, should it take down No. 12 Auburn in its regular-season finale. It beat Texas A&M in Week 7 when it was No. 24 in the AP Poll and No. 21 in the Coaches Poll, but the Aggies are currently ranked by no one.
Beating Auburn would give Alabama one signature win against a ranked opponent this season.
To compare, Oklahoma has a win against one ranked opponent in No. 19 Texas, though the Longhorns fell from the No. 11 spot (AP and Coaches polls) they had for this Week 7 rivalry matchup. The Sooners could also add two more wins against ranked teams to their resume with No. 13 Baylor on Saturday and No. 22 Oklahoma State to close out the regular season.
Oregon has one win over a ranked team in then-No. 25 Washington, but the Huskies are no longer ranked. And unless Arizona, Arizona State or Oregon State manage to jump into the top 25, the Ducks’ only other outcome against a ranked opponent would be their 27-21 Week 1 loss to Auburn.
Minnesota’s strength of schedule is not great at No. 72, but after beating then-No. 4 Penn State, the Golden Gophers are undefeated with a win against their first ranked opponent and a chance to add two more in No. 20 Iowa and No. 14 Wisconsin. If they finish the regular season undefeated, their resume looks awfully strong.
Advantage: Oklahoma, Minnesota
Head-to-head results
Alabama does not play Oklahoma, Oregon or Minnesota in the regular season.
Advantage: N/A
Common opponent
Although Alabama, Oklahoma and Minnesota have no shared opponents this season, Alabama and Oregon do. The Ducks opened the season with a six-point loss to Auburn, and this whole debate assumes Alabama wins out, which means beating Auburn.
Advantage: Alabama
Conference championships
Again, assuming LSU wins out, Alabama’s loss to the Tigers prevents the Crimson Tide from winning the SEC West, and, therefore, from playing in the SEC title game. So no SEC championship for them.
Pitting Alabama against the strongest potential opponents, we assume Oregon and Oklahoma win out and are one-loss conference champions. But we are also predicting Ohio State wins the Big Ten title, so no conference championship for Minnesota.
Advantage: Oregon and Oklahoma
So to recap, if the remaining playoff contenders win out and Alabama has to make its case for getting the fourth playoff spot, it doesn’t have a particularly strong argument. Of the four applicable categories here, the Crimson Tide only have the advantage over the other three teams in one, and that shouldn’t outweigh other categories, like conference titles.
Alabama is certainly one of the most talented teams in the country, and it would probably be favored against just about any other opponent. But the Crimson Tide needed to take down another serious playoff contender when they had the chance and didn’t.
Now, their best-case and realistic scenario overall is for LSU to win the SEC, Ohio State to win the Big Ten and for Oregon, Oklahoma and Minnesota to lose in the next few weeks. (We’re not going to consider Clemson losing as a reasonable possibility.)
And, of course, then hope the selection committee doesn’t forget to give out points just for being Alabama.
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