The Boston Celtics will be the proud new owners of the No. 14 pick of the 2020 NBA Draft later this afternoon — or they will own whatever pick the Memphis Grizzlies earn with their record in the 2020-21 NBA season, which has some Celtics fans a little confused.
And rightfully so — the combination of obscure rules about the draft, and how those rules were changed by the Disney bubble restart have combined to create a pretty muddy picture regarding what exactly is going on with the draft assets the Grizzlies owe the Celtics, save for the draft aficionados among us.
To start with, let’s get an understanding of the asset itself. The Grizzlies dealt the Celtics the pick in 2015 as part of the deal that sent forward Jeff Green to that team, with the pick having protections on when it would convey.
Celtics almost certain to get 2020 No. 14 pick after Grizzlies loss https://t.co/aE4bIJxWkh
— The Celtics Wire (@TheCelticsWire) August 15, 2020
In this case, the protections cover picks 1-6, meaning if the Grizzlies draw one of those draft positions, they get to keep it, and instead owe next season’s first-round pick no matter where it falls.
Now, because of the rules agreed to as part of the NBA restart from the pandemic hiatus, Memphis couldn’t have finished with lottery odds better than 13th-worst, and ended up with 14th-worst odds.
Here, we need to turn to draft lottery rules to understand what happens next.
Due to how the ping-pong balls operate, the team with the 14th-worst odds can still move up in the lottery based on how the balls bounce, but not to any position in the lottery — only the top four picks, or No. 14.
That last lottery position has a near-certain chance of coming up 14th, but it also has a 2.4 % chance of landing in the top four picks, meaning it would convey unprotected in 2021, as noted above.
Boston also controls their own pick (No. 26), the Milwaukee Bucks’ 2020 first-round pick (No. 30), and a second-round pick (No. 47) acquired in the sign-and-trade for Kemba Walker.
With only a few likely roster spots available, it seems likely a trade involving players, picks or both will end up going down, or perhaps a ‘stashed’ player or two will be drafted to play overseas until there’s roster space to bring them over.
But whatever the eventual plan is, at minimum we will have clarity about the assets the Celtics have when the NBA Draft Lottery goes down at 8:30 p.m. ET tonight.
Be sure to check out the article released today on the team’s website that features Celtics VP of Basketball Operations Mike Zarren and Director of Basketball Analytics David Sparks breaking down Boston’s draft situation and how the Draft Lottery itself works — it’s a must-read.
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