There was never going to be a perfect time to start quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. But now is as good a time as any for the Miami Dolphins to promote Tagovailoa over Ryan Fitzpatrick. They announced the move on Tuesday. The 2020 fifth-overall pick will have a bye week to prepare for the Los Angeles Rams in Week 8.
The Dolphins are prioritizing the development of their young quarterback, even if it means they may simultaneously push aside their playoff aspirations in 2020, with their chances sitting at 27.6%. And they’ll be throwing their rookie into the deep end against an L.A. defense which has allowed the fourth-fewest passing yards per game (209.5) in the league. According to Football Outsiders’ defensive DVOA ranking the Rams have the 13th-best defense in the NFL. If Dolphins coaches want to look at what Tagovailoa can do, the Rams will prove a quality first test.
But the move is not really about the Rams — or Week 8. The Dolphins didn’t watch Tagovailoa’s two throws in mop-up time against the New York Jets in Week 6 and say: “Hey, this guy is ready for Aaron Donald.” This move is about 2021 and beyond. The Dolphins need to start to evaluate Tagovailoa to see if he’s worth committing more time and effort for development. And hey, it’s possible the Dolphins can still make the playoffs with Tagovailoa.
Miami’s reluctance to start Tagovailoa for Week 1 was never a death knell on his development. In a season with limited training camp and zero preseason, Tagovailoa didn’t get the amount of work a rookie might need to prepare for the regular season — plus he was coming off a fractured hip that ended his college career. And the Dolphins, who had playoff aspirations in an uncertain AFC East, made what seemed to be a wise decision to put Fitzpatrick on the field in order to have a chance at starting the season with a decent record. That’s exactly what he gave them: 3-3. So far this season, the Dolphins lost to the Patriots, Bills and the Seahawks — all respectable teams — which has plopped them into the No. 2 spot in the AFC East.
Ryan Fitzpatrick appreciation post. Through six games:
🐬 1,535 pass yards
🐬 12 Total TDs
🐬 Dolphins 2nd place in AFC East pic.twitter.com/PopK6nK8Ns— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) October 20, 2020
But even with Fitzpatrick compiling the best completion percentage of his career (70.1%) and highest yards-per-game passing total (255.8), he was also throwing interceptions on 3.6% of his passes, which had him on pace to throw 19 in 2020. In other words, he was still Fitzpatrick. High-variance, and capable of looking equally brilliant and lost, depending on the play. And the decision to start Tagovailoa isn’t irreversible — they could fall back on Fitzpatrick, if necessary. Though, it does feel like a point of no return.
It’s clear the Dolphins had reached their ceiling with him, and .500 wasn’t where they wanted to land in 2020. They either want to be first in the AFC East or last. Well, maybe not last. That would mean they’re worse than the Jets and I wouldn’t wish that fate on anyone. But the point is, the Dolphins either want to make the playoffs or they want to pick high in the draft to add talent.
Tagovailoa will get to be the catalyst in either direction, and it will help the franchise understand where they stand at quarterback as they make decisions during the upcoming offseason. And with both the Houston Texans (1-5) and their own first-round draft choices, that might even include drafting another first-round quarterback in 2021, if necessary.
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