The Bill Belichick/Tom Brady era in New England was tremendous… for content creation.
When the New England Patriots began their first run at a dynasty, they were a group of underdogs, relying on a stout defense and a sixth-round draft pick at the quarterback position. By the time their second dynastic run came around, they were something different: The Evil Empire. A team that everybody loved to hate.
Both phases of their shared history made for great copy.
But as the sun began to set on Brady’s time with the Patriots, another cottage industry grew out of their run. Analysts and opinion columnists trying to predict when the “cliff would finally arrive,” and when Brady would finally be finished as a quarterback. An offshoot of this line of thinking started to break off into finding Brady’s successor. From the 2017 draft to the 2018 draft, every potential prospect was linked with the Patriots as the first quarterback for the year 1 PT: Post Tom.
That desire to link a potential Brady replacement to the Patriots has reached a fever pitch in the past few weeks, in the wake of the veteran passer leaving the organization to potentially finish his career with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. During free agency names like Jameis Winston and Cam Newton were suggested, and of course the recent Andy Dalton discussion focused on whether the former Cincinnati Bengal would fit in New England. Then there was talk of the Patriots perhaps trading up to select Tua Tagovailoa, or perhaps Jordan Love with their first-round pick.
In the end, the organization had a different plan. Second-year passer Jarrett Stidham.
This has led some to wonder if the team really has a plan at the position, or if they are taking to try and get to the top of the draft next year. But there is a plan, and the plan is the man from the 2019 NFL draft.
A fourth-round selection a year ago, the former Baylor and Auburn quarterback is their man at the position at the moment. Everything the Patriots have done this offseason – including what they have not done – points to Stidham being their plan for 2020 and beyond. To understand this we need to look at a few different factors: How the organization views the quarterback position, how Stidham fits with their views on the position, how the organization views their current roster and Stidham’s place on the roster, the economics of today’s NFL, and a potential 2020 season under the Auburn passer.
How Belichick and the Patriots View Quarterbacks
Bill Belichick’s father literally wrote the book on player scouting and evaluation.
Pages in your copy might be worn and yellowed, and some of the terminology is certainly outdated, but back in 1962 Steve Belichick publlished “Football Scouting Methods.” Viewed as the “bible of scouting techniques,” the book chronicled Belichick’s time coaching and scouting with the United States Naval Academy and covers advance scouting, that is, diving into the upcoming opponents and evaluating them both on a micro and a macro level. Everything from tracking hangtime on punts during warmups through the designs executed on every play of the game.
That “scouting bible” can be traced through the decisions made by his son and the Patriots to this day. The senior Belichick’s written words live on in the attention to detail his son’s teams practice year in and year out.
That scouting foundation shapes how Belichick and the Patriots approach player evaluation for free agency and the draft, and it is clear in how they view the quarterback position that the lessons Steve Belichick imparted on the football world are still used by his son. Steve Belichick’s attention to detail and football intelligence are among the traits the Patriots look for in a player, and in a quarterback. Back in 2017 Belichick gave a clinic presentation at Ohio State, and had this to say about the kinds of players he wants in his organization:
For me, tough, smart, dependable. That’s where I would start. Tough — mentally and physically. Smart — good decisions, good football understanding, high football IQ. Dependable — [in] critical situations, you can count on those players to perform under pressure. You can count on those players to execute what you want to execute as a team. The tougher the game, the more critical the game, the more important the situation, the more I want the tough, smart, dependable player in the game, in the eye of the storm, making a decision that needs to be made for us to win.
We all want great players; we all want as many as we can get. But in the end, there’s a cap on that — I don’t care where you are or what program you’re in. We all have some good ones, maybe a few more than others here or there. But in the end, that’s the way most teams are comprised. It’s the bulk of the rest of the players that you need to decide based on your scheme, the style of play you want to be.
Applying some of this philosophy to Brady, Belichick told CNBC back in 2018 that three traits set Brady apart: He has a strong work ethic, he thinks strategically, and he stays in the moment. To the point about thinking strategically, Belichick elaborated: “On the field he sees things,” Belichick said. “He’s got a great ability to take and [process] a large amount of information very quickly. He has great football vision, awareness, and understanding, again, of what we do and what our opponents do.”
Belichick was more specific about the quarterback position when he drafted Jimmy Garoppolo back in 2014. After the selection – which caught many Patriots’ observers by surprise – Belichick stated that it was also better to be ahead of schedule when looking for your next quarterback. To the position itself, Belichick offered this assessment: “The general qualities a quarterback needs to have are being able to manage the game, being able to do what the team needs to win, be accurate, be smart, and be productive.”
Finally, on how Belichick views the position, comes this bit of information from Daniel Jeremiah. Jeremiah is now the lead draft analyst for the NFL Network, but back in 1991 he was a scout. Prior to this year’s draft, he produced some notes he was given on scouting offensive players during a training session for scouts, given by Belichick. Take note of how Belichick outlines what to look for in quarterbacks:
I think you’ll enjoy this… We were given this handout during a scout school from my time with the Ravens. Coach Belichick has held true to almost all of this over the years. pic.twitter.com/pWB3oqo5JU
— Daniel Jeremiah (@MoveTheSticks) March 31, 2020
The first thing listed under quarterbacks? “#1 is to make good decisions.” The section goes on to read: “Emphasis on our game will be on decision, timing, accuracy – guy needs to be confident, intelligence is important but not as much so as field awareness.”
Keep this in mind as we work through the rest of the analysis.
So… why Jarrett Stidham?
To answer this question, we need to start back in the summer of 2018.
Back then, Stidham was preparing for his second year as Auburn’s starting quarterback. After beginning his college career at Baylor, he transferred to the SEC and in his first season under center for the Tigers, he guided Auburn to a 10-2 regular season record (including a win over Alabama in the Iron Bowl) and a berth in the SEC Championship Game. They faced Georgia in that contest, a team they had beaten back in November, but lost, spoiling hopes of a national title. But during that regular season Stidham threw three touchdowns against Georgia and completed 75% of his passes in the Iron Bowl.
As Stidham was readying himself for the upcoming season, the scouting world was doing their summer work on prospects, myself included. From my notes on Stidham, these were the things that impressed me about him from that 2017 season: Anticipation. Progression reads. Good footwork and ability to influence defenders with his eyes. Processing speed.
Some of the things that the Patriots value at the position.
In fact, I sat down with Matt Waldman of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio to do a deep dive on Stidham that summer, which you can view here if you have a spare hour or so. (And you do, because we’re all grounded right now):
Near the end of the video – during which we outline how Stidham could play himself into the first round – we shared our scheme fits for the Auburn passer.
I included the Patriots among them.
Now Stidham’s final season at Auburn did not quite match the lofty expectation I and others had for him, but he did earn a spot in the Senior Bowl. Prior to that week, many – myself included – anticipated that Stidham would be in position to have a very successful week. Previewing the passers I had Stidham stacked near the bottom in a piece for Big Blue View, but I wrote this about him:
I’ll admit that I was hoping for more from him this season, but things down in Auburn seemed off all year, and not just for Stidham. I do agree with Joe Marino of The Draft Network in that if there is one passer that could rise this week, it is Stidham, as I think he’ll look great in 7-on-7 drills and in a different offense. I’ll still have concerns even if he does have a good week, but the potential for a draft season rise is present.
That rise indeed took place, and it was in part due to what Stidham was able to run down in Mobile.
There is your intrepid author, chatting with Stidham at the end of the final day of practices. Shout-out to Christian Page of Cover1.net for what we thought at the time would be a lovely keepsake of a photograph. But in talking to Stidham, what stood out to me was how much he enjoyed, and thrived in, running Kyle Shanahan’s offense that week. Removed from running two different offenses in college – offenses that did not cater to his skillset at all – Stidham showed over the course of a week down in Alabama the passer he could be, and the quarterback I thought he was when I was studying him the previous summer. That week in Mobile he was confident, decisive, and worked through progression reads faster than the other quarterbacks, many of whom were drafted before him. As I wrote after the week in Alabama:
If you could have placed a bet pre-Senior Bowl on which quarterback might see his stock rise based on practice week, Stidham would have been a wise selection. His past two seasons at Auburn University showed moments of promise, but between the offensive system and the talent around him, his final season was largely underwhelming. But Stidham has some raw tools and traits, and they were on display during practice at Ladd-Peebles Stadium. His decision-making was sound throughout the week, he showed the ability to move defenders with his eyes (perhaps my favorite read and throw from any QB this week was a throw he had Wednesday when he moved the underneath linebacker in a Cover 1 scheme towards the tight end with his eyes, and then threw a slant right into the spot the LB vacated) and he made throws with good velocity and placement.
His week does not erase two years of game film, but it has many headed back to the film to see if anything was missed. Stidham, named the Offensive Practice Player of the Week by a vote from NFL scouts, certainly helped himself and is now perhaps in that Day 2 mix
After the Patriots selected him in the fourth round, Nick Caserio addressed the media. He had this to say about New England’s new quarterback.
Everything goes into it. I mean, everything goes into it, so it’s just part of our process that we go through. But he’s a smart kid, pretty mature and picks things up well. So, we’ll see how it goes. Like I said, he’s going to transition into a system that’s a little bit different in terms of play calling and some of the other things he’s going to be asked to do here. He’s an impressive kid. He’s very mature, so we’ll see how it goes.
Wisdom, maturity and intelligence. That coupled with what he did on the field, traits that mirror what the organization – and its leader – value at the position.
The Potential 2020 New England Patriots
Draft season is the ultimate window into the collective mind of an organization.
Putting aside the quarterback position for a moment, look at the rest of the acquisitions made by the New England Patriots this offseason. Starting with the draft, where their first three selections were on the defensive side of the football. They drafted an athletic safety from Division II in Kyle Dugger at the 37th spot, then two different linebackers in the second and third rounds in Josh Uche and Anfernee Jennings, respectively. To close out the second night of the draft they double-dipped at the tight end position, drafting a potential all-purpose tight end in Devin Asiasi, and a potential move tight end in Dalton Keene. They did not address quarterback, and they also did not address wide receiver. They looked at the defensive, and the tight end position.
They are looking to win rockfights in 2020, to steal a phrase from the wise David Archibald of InsideThePylon.com.
At the start of the Brady/Belichick run, the Patriots were breaking in a second-year quarterback drafted on the third day of the draft. They build their team around a tough, physical defense and a ball-control offense that asked Brady to throw usually 25 or so passes a game. Over time, when it became apparent what the team had in Brady, they put more of the offense on his shoulders. But until then, this was a team built to win those 17-14 rockfights.
That is going to be New England’s approach until they know what they have in Stidham. Until they know he can be trusted with that level of responsibility, they will ask of him what they asked of Brady in the beginning: Be smart with the football, don’t put our defense behind the eight ball with silly turnovers, and take advantage of the opportunities you get in the passing game.
Now, this might fly in the face of all the data we have at our disposal in today’s media space. Thanks to advances such as Expected Points Added, we know the passing game is king. We know that if you want to score points, your best way to do that is to put the football in the air. So why not go out and acquire a Newton, a Winston, a Dalton? Someone you can trust to put the ball in the air more than an unknown commodity in Stidham? Part of the answer to that question, I believe, is that the organization trusts Stidham – particularly the Stidham they believe he will grow into – more than those other quarterbacks. In addition, as with many things in life, money matters.
The Economics of the Position
Back in February of 2014, the Seattle Seahawks throttled the Denver Broncos in Super Bowl XLIX. Little did they know that the victory would become an economic blueprint for the rest of the league to follow.
Back in the 2012 draft, the Seahawks selected Russell Wilson in the third round. The Seahawks had signed free agent Matt Flynn to a three-year deal worth $20.5 million, with $9 million of that guaranteed. The expectations were that Flynn would be the team’s starting quarterback, given the expenditure. But when Wilson came into training camp, it became apparent very early on that he was the best quarterback on the roster.
Costing a mere $2.99 million spread out over four years.
The Seahawks became the blueprint. Sure, guys like Wilson do not come around all the time, but the road map was this: Get a cost-controlled quarterback on his rookie deal and load up around him to make a run at a Super Bowl. When it comes time for that rookie to get his second contract, hopefully he is playing at a high enough level that you can pay him the big money and he raises the level of play in those around him, where you might need to allocate less of your salary cap now. Teams such as the Los Angeles Rams (Jared Goff), Chicago Bears (Mitchell Trubisky), Cleveland Browns (Baker Mayfield), Baltimore Ravens (Lamar Jackson) and yes the Philadelphia Eagles (Carson Wentz) are looking to emulate this model. The Eagles did win a Super Bowl with Wentz on his rookie deal. Last year the Kansas City Chiefs won a Super Bowl with Patrick Mahomes on his rookie deal. Having a cost-controlled young quarterback is the best economic advantage a team can achieve in today’s NFL.
That is why the old method of sitting a rookie QB and letting him learn is out the window. Back prior to the 2019 NFL Draft I wrote a piece for the Pro Football Weekly Draft Guide magazine on this aspect of evaluating quarterbacks and getting them on the field immediately. I spoke with a number of people around the game, such as Dan Hatman (a former NFL scout), Matt Bowen, and Tony Racioppi, who is a private coach for quarterbacks helping to prepare them for the draft (Racioppi worked with Nate Stanley, among others, this past draft season). All of them highlighted just how important it was for teams to get these relatively-cheap quarterbacks playing early, given the economics of the new NFL. “We don’t have three years to develop QBs anymore,” Hatman told me. “We want them to perform at a high level on their rookie contracts.”
That leads us to New England. Stidham’s current contract is a four-year, $3.15 million deal. That is a very team-friendly deal for a potential starting quarterback. Now take a step back and look at New England’s overall financial picture. According to Miguel Benzan, who is the resource when it comes to the New England Patriots’ financial position, money is tight. According to his numbers the Patriots have just under $2 million in available cap space, and need that to sign their latest crop of draft picks. They might even need to create more space to get that done.
Simply put, there is no money out there to sign a veteran passer.
Now yes, there are creative ways to get around the cap and structure deals. If the team wanted to, they could probably find a way to get a deal done with Newton. And yes, in a vacuum Newton is a better quarterback than Stidham right now. And yes, as Doug Farrar recently argued Newton could fit in New England’s offense. But the issue is one of economics and Belichick – an economics major at Wesleyan University – knows this. A cost-controlled Stidham playing at a decent level gives the team so many different options going forward, especially when you consider that next season, the team is protected to have a ton of cap space available. Per OverTheCap.com, the Patriots are projected to have around $100 million in space prior to the 2021 season. Some of the big name free agents that will be available? A.J. Green, Allen Robinson, T.Y. Hilton, Keenan Allen, Will Fuller, Curtis Samuel and JuJu Smith-Schuster.
And that’s just at wide receiver.
Money matters.
Prospects for the 2020 New England Patriots
So what could a Stidham-led Patriots season look like? At the outset, there are questions about when that might begin. The current global climate leaves us wondering what a 2020 NFL season might look like, and while the league says the year will begin on schedule, preparations have to be made for potential delays to the season and training camp.
This is part of the reason that New England’s big quarterback acquisition this season was veteran passer Brian Hoyer. As predicted by your author right after he was released:
Would bet on a return to Foxborough to help mentor Stidham. https://t.co/BtjqGFVwxG
— Mark Schofield (@MarkSchofield) March 21, 2020
Hoyer, given his experience in New England, was first signed as a potential mentor for Stidham. But beyond that, should there be an abbreviated training camp, or should Stidham not be ready to start Week 1, now the Patriots have someone who knows their offense inside-and-out ready to go. While Newton, Dalton and Winston are all more talented than Hoyer, in this current climate, someone who already has a foundational knowledge of your offense is a valuable commodity.
But let’s say Stidham is ready for Week 1 and despite the disbelief in some national circles, he is New England’s starter. Does this mean that Belichick is actually…tanking?
Not so fast, my friend.
Dave Brown, who covers the Patriots for the Concord Monitor, put it best on Twitter the other day:
Belichick is more likely to acquire a tank and take the first overall pick by force.
— Dave Brown (@ThatDaveBrown) May 1, 2020
Belichick is building a team reminiscent of the early Brady/Belichick Era, built to win rockfights around a quarterback that fits what they value at the position. From everyone I have talked to in and around this team, they really are excited about what Stidham has done over the past year or so. He came in during rookie minicamp and struggled, but then in training camp and into the preseason schedule he started to really develop nicely for the team. Just one play of his showed me that he was starting to pick up the mental side of the game, and I wrote about it here. But watch this play against the Detroit Lions:
This looks like a throwaway scramble in the midst of a forgettable preseason game, but it is much more than that. The Lions are running a tough variation of Cover 2 Trap for any quarterback to read, called 5 Cougar. In this variation, the outside cornerback executes a man coverage turn—like the Lions’ CB does here—but is still reading the slot receiver. Yes, with his back to him. That helps sell the quarterback that the CB is bailing, but it is really just a wrinkle looking to bait the quarterback into throwing the flat route, and potentially an interception. They are trying to bait Stidham into throwing this flat route to the right. But he, like a savvy veteran, sees it and pulls the ball down.
Most rookies — heck, most veterans — get baited into the mistake. Stidham does not.
So the organization is excited about him, and with reason. But even still, there is a chance things go south. There is a chance that he is not the guy. There is a chance they struggle next year with him at the helm. Let’s not forget, the Patriots have a first place schedule next season, and have you seen what that entails? They have games against the Baltimore Ravens, the Houston Texans and the Kansas City Chiefs, with the Texans and Chiefs games coming on the road. They play the NFC West this year, meaning trips to Seattle and Los Angeles are on the docket, as well as a visit from San Francisco and Arizona. They have to go to Los Angeles to also play the chargers, and they get another trip to the west coast to play the Raiders in Las Vegas. Oh, and look around the AFC East. These are not your father’s Miami Dolphins, Buffalo Bills and New York Jets. So there is a chance that Stidham plays well and Belichick coaches the best season of his career, and with this schedule they still finish something like 8-8.
In that case, they’re picking in the middle of the first round with a cost-controlled quarterback for the next season and $100 million of cap space.
There is a plan in place in New England. The plan is to see what they have in Jarrett Stidham, a quarterback with potential, who fits what they value at the position, and fits the current dream economic model of today’s game for a cash-strapped team. The plan is to copy their 2001-2002 model, with a ball-control offense and a stout defense that enables them to win those 17-14 rockfights. The plan is to hope that Stidham is the guy, and then they’ll have two more cost-controlled seasons with him at the helm and a ton of cap space. This is not a tank. If they struggle next year, in all likelihood it is a result of a difficult schedule, and not a devious plan to try and land Trevor Lawrence or Justin Fields. Although, if Stidham does fail and they do limp to a 4-12 season, those guys might not be bad fallback positions…
But Stidham fits with what they want at the position and fits with their current view of the organization. It might not fit with how the rest of the football world views them from the outside, but given what the team has done over their past two decades, this approach is the plan they are looking to implement.