In 2022, the tale of the Denver Broncos was the complete cratering of the offense with Russell Wilson, and a defense that ranked 13th in DVOA was a sub-story, at best. The Broncos made all kinds of changes in the offseason, including the trade that allowed them to hire Sean Payton as head coach, and replacing defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero with Vance Joseph.
Through the first five games of the 2023 season, the script has flipped about as much as it is possible to do. Wilson is actually performing decently in Payton’s offense — not nearly what he was at his Seattle best, but at least out of the figurative gutter.
No, the problem for the 1-4 Broncos now is a defense that is historically bad. No team has ranked worse in Defensive DVOA through the first five games of a season than Denver, and DVOA goes back to 1981 at this point. Denver has given up 13 opponent touchdowns to just three interceptions, and their opponent passer rating allowed of 124.6 is by far the NFL’s worst — the Chicago Bears rank second at 111.1.
The run defense is just as bad, which is kind of remarkable — usually, subpar defenses are sub-par in one direction or the other. Kudos to the Broncos for filling out both sides of the equation. Denver has allowed a league-worst 938 rushing yards and a league-worst 5.9 yards per carry and eight touchdowns, which is only the league’s second-worst total, behind the New York Giants and Carolina Panthers, who have each allowed nine.
The nadir of this defense this season — at least, so far — was the 70-20 Week 3 loss to the Miami Dolphins, when the Broncos became the first team in pro football history to allow 10 offensive touchdowns in a game. But things haven’t been much better since. On Sunday, the New York Jets beat the Broncos, 31-21, and it wasn’t Zach Wilson who beat them — it was a run game that amassed 234 yards, the third-most allowed by any defense in a game this season. No. 1 in that category? The 350 yards the Broncos allowed to the Dolphins in that 70-20 laugher.
One more DVOA tidbit for tonight.
The Denver Broncos, who had the worst defense ever measured by DVOA through 4 games, also have the worst defense ever measured by DVOA through 5 games.
— Aaron Schatz đ (@ASchatzNFL) October 9, 2023
So, it’s clear that the Denver Broncos have a historically bad defense. Why has this happened, and how in the world do they fix it?