The Miami Dolphins have traded veteran linebacker Raekwon McMillan. This news broke yesterday at the front end of Miami’s team scrimmage at Hard Rock Stadium. But as the details of McMillan’s trade have become known, some Dolphins fans are left feeling somewhat underwhelmed by the Dolphins’ return. Why?
Because while the Dolphins welcomed a 2021 4th-round draft selection, the team also sent a 2021 5th-round draft pick with McMillan to Las Vegas. In all, the trade is summarized as a player & pick for a pick. Why did Miami include an additional draft selection to go with McMillan to Las Vegas? How come the Dolphins couldn’t simply command a 4th-round choice in a straight up swap?
The answer lies partly in some of the dynamics we explored yesterday when the news first broke Miami was actively shopping McMillan.
“This is a sticky proposition for the Dolphins. McMillan indeed has value. And trying to trade him now versus letting him walk makes sense. But his status as a player in a contract year who got reduced snaps last year isn’t going to make it easy to pitch teams coughing up a prized pick for his services. Our guess? If McMillan ends up getting dealt, it will probably be for a 2021 5th-round selection.” – Dolphins Wire
No NFL team was going to pony up premiere assets for a player that is only guaranteed one season of control as an expiring contract. Especially when that player saw his snaps reduced by 316 reps from 2018 to 2019 under Brian Flores. The modern NFL linebacker has to be at least sufficient in coverage to be a three down player — over McMillan’s two seasons of play he’s conceded 42 receptions on 51 targets in coverage while conceding 6 touchdowns and only getting hands on 2 passes. McMillan is a stalwart against the run. But the NFL isn’t a run-first league and Miami’s concessions for McMillan in coverage were impossible to get excited about for any potential buyer.
So the Dolphins sweetened the pot with a pick in return. And, for what it is worth, according to the Jimmy Johnson trade value chart (meant to quantify the value of draft picks) the Dolphins are likely to get at least the 5th-round pick value for McMillan that we forecasted. Let’s look at the best & worst case scenarios for the value of Miami’s returned pick.
Best Case Scenario
If the picks exchanged were the first pick in each of the rounds, the value for McMillan would be as follows:
- Miami receives — Pick 96 (112 points)
- Las Vegas receives — LB Raekwon McMillan & Pick 128 (43 points)
Difference: 69 points on the trade value chart, equivalent to the 112th pick in the draft (4th round)
Worst Case Scenario
If the picks exchanged were the last pick in each of the rounds, the value for McMillan would be as follows:
- Miami receives — Pick 127 (44 points)
- Las Vegas receives — LB Raekwon McMillan & Pick 159 (26.2 points)
Difference: 17.8 points on the trade value chart, equivalent to the 180th pick in the draft (6th round)
Most Likely Scenario
If the picks exchanged were in the middle of each of the rounds, the value for McMillan would be as follows:
- Miami receives — Pick 111 (70 points)
- Las Vegas receives — LB Raekwon McMillan & Pick 143 (34 points)
Difference: 36 points on the trade value chart, equivalent to the 139th pick in the draft (5th round)