Patrick Mahomes is the most dynamic quarterback in the NFL today. Of that, there is little doubt. And after their win over the Denver Broncos last Thursday, the Kansas City Chiefs stand at 5-1 on the season. So, it looks like business as usual for the defending Super Bowl champs. The Chiefs rank fifth in Passing DVOA, so you might assume that everything is awesome with Mahomes and the offense.
Not so fast, as they say. Through the first six weeks of the 2023 season, Mahomes and that offense have come up seriously short on deep passes.
In the 2021 regular season and postseason, Mahomes completed 33 of 76 deep passes for 1,168 yards, nine touchdowns, three interceptions, seven turnover-worthy throws, and a passer rating of 113.4.
In 2022, Mahomes completed 28 of 66 deep passes for 931 yards, three touchdowns, no interceptions, three turnover-worthy throws, and a passer rating of 104.7.
In 2023, Mahomes has completed eight of 23 deep passes for 278 yards, no touchdowns, three interceptions, six turnover-worthy throws, and a passer rating of 38.5. Only Jameis Winston, Anthony Richardson, and Jordan Love have a lower passer rating on those deep passes, and no quarterback has more turnover-worthy throws on them.
Why is Mahomes struggling this much with deep throws, and what are defenses doing to amplify those frustrations? Let’s take a look under the hood.