Several teams are looking to trade for Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson, and the New Orleans Saints are at the forefront. Distasteful as I find the idea of the Saints adding someone with 22 credible accusations of sexual misconduct, I’ve still got a job to do. So let’s see what a Saints trade for Watson might look like.
NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reported that the price for Watson has not changed over the last year: Houston wants a package built around three future first round draft picks. That’s just the foundation. If the Saints or any other team want to separate from the pack, they’ll have to stack more assets to reach a deal with the Texans.
So we’re starting with New Orleans’ first rounder in 2022 (No. 18 overall) as well as their first-round pick in 2023 and 2024. Houston would likely want a pair of second rounders in addition to that. And then, based off the Denver Broncos’ trade for Russell Wilson, New Orleans would have to add a couple of players to the mix. As was the case for Denver, maybe the Saints can also negotiate a pick swap in the later rounds (the Broncos got back a 2022 fourth rounder in exchange for a fifth round pick).
Which players could be involved? No one who has restructured their contract this offseason can be moved without costing the Saints a lot of dead money. Their best remaining options include defensive end Marcus Davenport, defensive tackle David Onyemata, safety Malcolm Jenkins, quarterback Taysom Hill, right guard Cesar Ruiz, and former Texans cornerback Bradley Roby. Inexpensive starters like center Erik McCoy and defensive back C.J. Gardner-Johnson could also be on the table.
The Texans already have some quarterbacks in the building so Hill probably doesn’t appeal to them. Davenport is from San Antonio and could appeal to Houston, who need more pass rushers. It’s unclear if Roby would be a good fit in Lovie Smith’s defense but it’s worth considering a reunion given his familiarity with the team. Gardner-Johnson could be high on their radar, too. Houston’s secondary is rough at all levels and he could be a big addition for them. The Texans could try to convince the Saints to include McCoy but the Saints likely view him as equal to a second round pick, if not a first. They shouldn’t trade McCoy and a premium draft pick. It needs to be one or the other. That’s the case for a few other players we mentioned.
With all this in mind: here is the kind of trade package Houston may be looking for:
- 2022 first round pick (No. 18)
- 2022 second round pick (No. 49)
- 2023 first round pick
- 2024 first round pick
- Defensive end Marcus Davenport
- Defensive back C.J. Gardner-Johnson
If that feels like a lot, it’s because it is. A 26-year-old quarterback who has already earned three Pro Bowl appearances won’t be cheap. This gets the “five or six” assets Houston has said to covet, and the three first rounders we know they want. They also get an impactful pass rusher (who, like McCoy, could be valued as a second round pick) and a firebrand in the secondary. And this seriously guts New Orleans. They won’t pick in the first round again until 2025. They’re without maybe their best pass rusher and a foundational defensive back. But the strength of their team is on defense, and that’s where they’re likeliest to lose talent in a trade like this.
Now you’ve got to ask if it’s worth it. If Watson can elevate the Saints offense while they take these hits on defense, and without premium draft picks to fall back on in the foreseeable future. It’s a massive gamble. If Watson underperforms or draws more allegations like happened in Houston, this is a disaster for New Orleans. There’s an outrageously high level of risk. Whether you or I have the appetite for that kind of deal is up to us, but the Saints wouldn’t have gotten to this stage if they weren’t comfortable with it.
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