Rookie passing leader each season since 2013 pic.twitter.com/vjnjU6uEbr
— PFF (@PFF) April 10, 2023
The graphic above from Pro Football Focus got us thinking. What would Brock Purdy’s numbers have looked like as a rookie had he gotten to play a full slate of games?
An important thing to keep in mind here is that this is all hypothetical and not some indictment on the 49ers for not starting Purdy out of the gate. He was the final pick in the draft, Trey Lance was ready to start, and Jimmy Garoppolo was the backup. The QB hierarchy to start the year was abundantly clear.
Purdy wound up playing in nine games with five starts. For our purposes we’ll take his numbers from the Dolphins game where Garoppolo got hurt, through the regular season finale. That’s six contests where he attempted 161 passes for 1,308 yards, 13 touchdowns and three interceptions. He completed 68.3 percent of his throws and averaged 8.1 yards per attempt.
If we spread those numbers out across 17 games we get a huge year from Purdy. Here’s his numbers extrapolated over a full season:
312-456 (68.3 percent) 3,706 yards, 37 touchdowns, 8 interceptions
His yardage total would’ve been 10th in the NFL. His 37 touchdown passes would’ve been No. 2 in the league behind Patrick Mahomes (and a 49ers franchise record), and his eight interceptions would’ve tied with Tua Tagovailoa and Trevor Lawrence for sixth fewest in the league among QBs with 12-plus starts.
Of course, it’s impossible to know what Purdy’s season would’ve looked like had he been thrown into the fire on Day 1. However, it is interesting to project what a full season might look like in the future.
He’s the presumed QB1 for San Francisco and if he doesn’t regress or suffer aftereffects from his torn UCL, there’s a strong chance a full year in 2023 looks a lot like the numbers above. If the 49ers are going to have a QB who pushes 4,000 passing yards while keeping his touchdown rate near the top of the league and his interception rate below 2.0 percent, they’re going to win a lot of games in the Purdy era.
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