The Green Bay Packers must be considerably better on third down to beat the San Francisco 49ers in the rematch on Sunday at Levi’s Stadium.
The 49ers smothered Aaron Rodgers and the Packers during the first meeting, especially on third down, en route to a 37-8 victory.
Rodgers completed only 2-of-8 passes for 14 yards and took two sacks on third down as the Packers finished 1-of-15 on the key down six weeks ago in San Francisco.
What went wrong for the Packers on third down on Nov. 24? Just about everything.
The Packers struggled in pass protection, especially after losing right tackle Bryan Bulaga. Rodgers wasn’t decisive with the football. Receivers didn’t make plays. Matt LaFleur stayed in one or two different formations. And the 49ers played really, really well at all three levels.
Complicating matters was that 11 of the third downs required the offense to gain nine or more yards. That’s a tough spot to be in against a great pass-rushing team.
Add it all up, and the Packers got dominated on third down.
However, a little bit better protection, a little bit better play from the quarterback position, a little better work at the catch point by the receivers, a little bit better plan of attack and a little bit more consistency on early downs could just as easily flip the script and help turn the blowout from six weeks ago into a competitive, fourth-quarter game on Sunday.
Here’s a look at 10 of the notable third-down failures from the first meeting:
1. 13:41, first quarter, 3rd-and-10, own 25
The 49ers showed a blitz late. Davante Adams recognized it. Aaron Rodgers didn’t. Fred Warner and the slot cornerback both blitzed, Billy Turner got beat and DeForest Buckner stunted to the outside and beat Elgton Jenkins to the edge. Rodgers missed the hot throw to Adams and didn’t have a sightline to check it down to Aaron Jones. Allen Lazard lost his footing and altered the timing of the route combination. After some moving around a disrupted pocket, Rodgers absorbed a sack from Warner and lost a fumble.
2. 12:08, first quarter, 3rd-and-4, own 32
The 49ers played single-high with man coverage across the board. The Packers went empty, a common formation called by LaFleur on third down during the first meeting. The 49ers attempted another stunt inside. Arik Armstead bowled over Jenkins and hit Rodgers, who still made a terrific throw behind the sticks. Geronimo Allison just dropped it.
3. 7:29, first quarter, 3rd-and-9, own 13
The Packers split out Jamaal Williams to the right and attempted a bubble screen. Williams dropped it. The Packers had blockers coming but the timing was off and the play was probably in trouble, regardless of whether or not Williams caught the ball.
4. 1:52, first quarter, 3rd-and-13, own 22
Rodgers attempted to fit the ball into a tight window against a seven-man cloud coverage. Adams was open briefly but the ball was a smidge late. Jimmie Ward ranged over from the middle of the field and disrupted the throw. Buckner eventually beat Turner inside for a knockdown.
5. 11:56, second quarter, 3rd-and-8, 49ers 35
Low snap. Adams won on the slant from the slot but Ward was playing a robber coverage and crashed down to make a crunching tackle short of the sticks. The completion gained seven yards and set up 4th-and-1.
6. 6:58, second quarter, 3rd-and-8, own 34
Adams was open on time on the slant. Rodgers didn’t pull the trigger. Nick Bosa whooped Alex Light off the edge, forcing Rodgers up and out of the pocket to his right. The movement provided a throwing opportunity downfield to Jimmy Graham. The on-the-run throw was good but Graham didn’t hang on, although it’s possible a review of the play could have overturned the call on the field. The incompletion negated a potential game-changing play.
7. 2:06, second quarter, 3rd-and-6, own 29
Aaron Jones motioned out wide. Rodgers attempted to get the ball out quick to Jones but the cornerback in coverage was all over it.
8. 0:40, second quarter, 3rd-and-8, own 28
Light got beat clean by Bosa. With a little more time, Rodgers likely would have found Graham on an out-breaking route for a first down. That’s where he was looking, and Graham broke open moments after Rodgers went down.
9. 9:43, third quarter, 3rd-and-8, own 48
The pocket actually stayed mostly clean. Allen Lazard got behind Richard Sherman and was open for a big play, but Rodgers didn’t go for it. It was a big miss. His attempted scramble once the protection broke down ended well short of the first down.
10. 14:14, fourth quarter, 3rd-and-10, 49ers 36
The protection was good. Rodgers took a shot into the end zone behind the Cover-3 shell and nearly found Marquez Valdes-Scantling. The ball was a little deep and Valdes-Scantling couldn’t get two feet down in bounds. A touchdown would have required either a great throw or a great catch, and the play got neither.
Examining the third downs from the first meeting helped make a few things clear:
– The Packers must hold up better in pass protection, both on the edge and along the interior. Getting back Bryan Bulaga will help, but Elgton Jenkins, Corey Linsley and Billy Turner must play better Sunday.
– The plan needs to be more diverse with varying personnel. They kept lining up in the same spread formations and banging their head against the wall.
– Avoiding third-and-long will be crucial. Second down will be huge.
– The quarterback must be decisive. Holding the ball in the pocket is the kiss of death against this pass rush. Rodgers was lethal throwing on time on third down against the Seahawks.
– The receivers have to make the most of every opportunity. Three drops on third down won’t cut it Sunday.
– Adams has to be more involved. He caught only one of two targets, and his one catch didn’t convert.
The Packers converted nine third downs and finished 9-for-14 on third down on Sunday against the Seahawks. Repeating those numbers against the 49ers probably isn’t realistic, but they’re capable of converting opportunities and staying on the field if they can improve in several areas of execution on Sunday. It’s a challenge LaFleur’s team must meet to advance to the Super Bowl.