The College Football Playoff selection committee’s penultimate rankings will be released tonight (Tuesday). There isn’t too much intrigue in them, and we are a bit past the point of the season where the committee will send us real messages–not that messages earlier in the season have been particularly consistent.
Instead, there are a few important things to look at as we set the stage for next week’s CFP selections and for the other New Years’ Six bids.
Utah vs Big 12
The first thing to look at is where the committee places the Utes. Utah has been ahead of Oklahoma and Baylor the past few weeks. If that stays the same, then we have no new information. If, however, Oklahoma (and/or Baylor) jumps Utah this week, that would show us that the Utes are on the outside looking in when it comes to the No. 4 spot. Also, remember to listen to what Rob Mullens says about this discussion, as he will almost certainly tell us something about how the committee compared Utah to the Big 12 teams. How meaningful that explanation is is anyone’s guess, but it will be the best we have.
Where do Alabama and Wisconsin move to?
Conference pecking order in the Big Ten will matter for the Rose Bowl, and for the SEC could matter for the Orange Bowl (or Sugar Bowl, if Georgia and LSU both make the Playoff). Will Wisconsin jump Penn State? If not, the Nittany Lions are all but guaranteed a Rose Bowl bid (assuming Wisconsin doesn’t beat Ohio State). If yes, then it will depend on if Wisconsin can keep the Big Ten Championship Game close enough to still stay ahead of Penn State. The committee has shown a trend of not dropping teams too far for losing in conference championship games. We’ll see if this year’s committee holds to that.
Alabama, meanwhile, will certainly fall out of the Top 8. The question is how much lower the Tide lands. Will Alabama fall behind Penn State or Wisconsin? What about Florida? Will the committee drop Alabama far enough to move it behind Auburn? Remember, the highest-ranked Big Ten or SEC team after the Rose and Sugar Bowl selections are made will go to the Orange Bowl. Florida currently sits in that position, assuming Georgia loses the SEC Championship Game. Will Wisconsin take the Rose Bowl spot and move Penn State to the Orange Bowl? Or Will Alabama become the new leading two-loss team and sit in line for the Orange Bowl? Could we see–as Penn State’s win over Michigan got weaker and Florida’s win over Auburn got better–the Gators jump Penn State, and move in to Orange Bowl position for the SEC?
The Group of 5 teams
The last bit of curiosity–other than the options at the bottom of the rankings (many of which are defensible and none particularly strong)–is how far Cincinnati falls. Will the Bearcats slide significantly behind Boise State, enough to hint that the Broncos are the Cotton Bowl favorites if Cincinnati beats Memphis this week? Or will Cincinnati only fall one or two spots (or maybe even stay ahead of the Broncos), indicating that a win over Memphis will likely be enough to jump Cincinnati back into the Cotton Bowl? Maybe Air Force showing up at the No. 25 spot would shed some light on this, but there’s honestly zero reason for the committee to rank Air Force over a Navy team that beat it head-to-head, so don’t expect to see the Falcons in here.
Other than that, things are pretty simple for the selection committee this week. The Top 17 have essentially locked themselves in, and all the fighting is from 18 on down. There are a few small questions we can get answers to, but for the most part we know all of the scenarios heading into conference championship game weekend.