We have our first major move of the 2021 NFL off-season. The Detroit Lions traded veteran quarterback Matthew Stafford to the Los Angeles Rams in exchange for quarterback Jared Goff, a pair of first-round selections, and a third-round pick as well.
While there are obvious considerations for those two teams, there is also another angle to consider here: What does this mean for the Houston Texans and Deshaun Watson?
By now you probably know the storylines. Watson is frustrated with the direction of the organization and has requested a trade from the team. Incoming general manager Nick Caserio indicated in the past few days that he has no intentions of “trading the player,” but that was before the Saturday night deal between the Rams and the Lions.
Given what the Rams were willing to pay for Stafford, a 32-year old quarterback under contract through the 2023 season, what might the Texans get in return for Watson, a 25-year old quarterback under contract through the 2025 season?
Of course, the financial considerations are worth discussing. According to OverTheCap.com, Stafford’s current contract is somewhat team-friendly. His cap number this season is $33 million, and that reduces each of the next two seasons, dropping all the way down to a paltry – by NFL starting quarterback standards – during the 2023 campaign.
As for Watson, his cap number over the next few years accelerates rather quickly. In the 2021 season his cap number is a mere $15.94 million. Then it hits $40.4 million in 2022 and $42.4 million in 2023, before leveling off in the upper $30 million range.
A bit more expensive.
But also for a quarterback in his mid-twenties, and one of the NFL’s elite talents.
With the Rams sending a young quarterback, a pair of future-first round picks, and a third-rounder to Detroit for Stafford, what might the asking price be now for Watson? There is a reason many link Watson with either the New York Jets or the Miami Dolphins. Both teams have a pair of first-round selections in this draft, and they also have a young quarterback that could be included in the deal, whether Sam Darnold or Tua Tagovailoa. The price for acquiring Stafford might mean those are the starting terms from Houston’s perspective.
Caserio might say he has no intentions of trading the player, but with what the Rams were willing to part with in exchange for Stafford, the Texans could truly come away with a king’s ransom if they parted ways with Watson.
That might be hard to turn down.
Caserio, however, would be smart to move sooner rather than later. The longer he waits on this, the more his bargaining position weakens. It would be wiser to make a move now, with more potential trade partners out there and a lot more before the draft and the start of the season, than it would be to wait, see potential dance partners move on, and to hear Watson start rumbling about a holdout. If that happens, any leverage Caserio has now would be greatly diminished. Plus, given Watson’s no-trade clause, the more trade partners you have to work with, the better.
As for the quarterback himself, Watson is still in a very good position. Looking at the potential suitors out there (in addition to the Jets and the Dolphins you could picture the Indianapolis Colts, Washington Football Team, and the San Francisco 49ers as being teams willing to make such a move) you are looking at a group of teams either coming off playoff appearances, having just missed out on the playoffs, and a year removed from a Super Bowl.
Or potentially playing in the New York City media market.
Some pretty desirable situations.
So the Stafford trade was the first domino to fall, but the reverberations will be felt from this deal throughout the off-season.