What the Matt Ryan trade adds to the Indianapolis Colts’ offense

The Indianapolis Colts have a new quarterback. Here is what veteran passer Matt Ryan can bring to their offense.

The quarterback carousel continues to spin this NFL off-season, and the latest ride draws to a close with veteran quarterback Matt Ryan the latest passer to find a new home. After the Atlanta Falcons entertained the idea to trade for Deshaun Watson — even pushing back a roster bonus due to Ryan to give more time for a trade to materialize — the Falcons are moving in a different direction.

And Ryan is moving to the AFC South.

Ryan is now a member of the Indianapolis Colts, as general manager Chris Ballard has taken another crack at figuring out the quarterback position. Just last off-season, Ballard swung on a trade for Carson Wentz. With the Colts struggling down the stretch and missing the playoffs after a loss in the final game of the season to the Jacksonville Jaguars, the organization moved on from Wentz after just a single season.

Now they turn to Ryan.

What are the Colts getting in Ryan? In addition to adding a veteran passer who has been to the Super Bowl and is ready to start Week 1 — in contrast to options available in the draft — Ryan represents the next step in the progression of the Colts offense, something put in motion last year with the acquisition of Wentz.

A move towards bolstering the downfield passing game.

Going back to the 2019 season, the last year Wentz was a full-time starter in Philadelphia, the vertical part of the playbook has been a strength of his. During that season, Wentz posted an Adjusted Completion Percentage (ACP) of 44.6% on throws of 20 yards or more downfield, according to Pro Football Focus charting data. That placed Wentz eighth in the NFL among qualified passers in that category.

That season the Colts struggled in the deep ball, with Jacoby Brissett under center. Brissett posted an ACP on those downfield throws of 34.9%, placing him 31st in the league in that category.

Then, in an effort to solidify the position, Ballard acquired Philip Rivers in free agency after his long career with the Chargers.

During Rivers’ final season, the 2020 campaign, he placed tenth in the NFL on such vertical passes, posting an ACP of 50.0% on throws more than 20 yards downfield. However, the deep passing game was just a fraction of the Indianapolis offense. Rivers attempted throws of 20 yards or more on less than ten percent of his throws, as the Colts were heavily reliant on the short and horizontal passing game.

The acquisition of Wentz was a means of adding more verticality to the Colts’ passing attack. While Wentz began his career under Doug Pederson in more of a West Coast, horizontal-based offense, the Eagles during Wentz’s tenure as their starter took on more of a vertical element. In that ill-fated final season in Philadelphia, 13.7% of Wentz’s throws were more than 20 yards downfield, the sixth-highest percentage among qualified passers.

In his one season with the Colts, Wentz posted an ACP of 47.5% on throws 20 yards or more downfield, ranking him 12th in the NFL. A staple of the Indianapolis offense last season, given their success on the ground, was downfield shot plays working off play-action. Throws like this one from Wentz against the Houston Texans:

Returning to Adjusted Completion Percentage for a moment, any idea of the passer who placed third in that category a season ago?

Ryan.

While Ryan is on the tail end of his career, and might not have the velocity on his fastball that he possessed during perhaps in 2016 season, when he won the league’s MVP award and led all quarterbacks with an Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt of 9.03, last season he was among the game’s best deep-ball throwers.

On his 51 passing attempts of 20 yards or more, Ryan hit on 22 for 762 yards, three touchdowns and one interception.

Ryan’s prowess on the vertical, touch passing game shows up on throws like this to Russell Gage from Week 18. Gage runs a deep corner route breaking towards the right sideline, and the cornerback is in underneath trail coverage. Ryan drops this throw perfectly, over the leverage of the underneath defender and only where Gage can pull in the throw:

You can also see how the Falcons use run action on this play, mirroring what the Colts did last season when trying to generate explosive plays in the downfield passing game.

One of Ryan’s biggest throws of the season came late in a Week 7 win over the Miami Dolphins. With the Falcons trailing by one at the two-minute warning, rookie tight end Kyle Pitts aligned alone on the right side, running a vertical route against talented cornerback Xavien Howard. Pitts gets a step or two of separation, and Ryan drops this throw into an absolute shoebox:

(For more on Ryan’s connection with Pitts, you can check out this piece from our Doug Farrar after watching tape with the quarterback last fall).

In addition to Pitts, another player who emerged as a weapon in Atlanta last season was Cordarrelle Patterson. On this play from Atlanta’s game against the Saints in Week 9, you see not only Ryan’s touch in the downfield passing game, but also his ability to manipulate defenders. Ryan helps sell the double-move with the pump fake, flashing the football to get the corner to bite down. Then, he drops in the bucket throw for the big gain:

Now, while Ryan might not have the pure velocity, as well as the pocket movement skills, that he once had there are still moments where he can tap into those traits. On this throw against the Saints from Week 18, Ryan is able to climb and slide in the pocket while keeping his eyes downfield, finding Gage late in the down on a crossing route to move the chains:

With respect to the velocity question, another favorite throw of mine from Ryan last season came in a win over the New York Giants, when Ryan absolutely threaded the needle on this dig route to Olamide Zaccheaus:

Ryan drills this into Zaccheaus in the middle of three defenders, putting in on the receiver a step before the safety can make a play on the body. The hit draws a flag as well, but the pass is only completed due to the velocity that Ryan can get on the throw.

In Indianapolis, Ryan will also get the benefit of playing behind a better offensive line than the one he left behind. Obviously the Colts have one of the NFL’s best interior offensive linemen in Quenton Nelson, but last year the Colts posted a Pass Block Win Rate of 60%, ranking 20th in the NFL.

Atlanta? They checked in at 54%, 26th in the NFL.

Now, this move is not without risk. After all, Ryan turns 37 in a May, and now joins a deeply talented AFC with loaded teams across the conference. Furthermore, Ballard is under tremendous pressure to get the quarterback piece right, after moving on nearly immediately after the Wentz trade.

But for the cost of just a third-round selection, Ballard might have just salvaged the quarterback position for at least the 2022 season. Also, it is important to remember this piece:

There is also this component.

Ryan brings stability.

In the wake of Wentz’s departure from Indianapolis, the reporting around his tenure with the Colts painted him in a less-than-favorable light. Contrast that with Ryan’s time in Atlanta, even the past week. As the Falcons tried to convince Watson to waive his no-trade clause to join Atlanta, there was mostly silence from the Ryan camp.

That experienced, veteran leadership might just be what the Colts are seeking after the past 12 months.

Ryan still has good football left in him, as we saw last season, and gives Ballard a chance at redemption after the Wentz trade. The quarterback we saw last season fits in with what the Colts are doing offensively, building off of play-action and trying to generate explosive plays in the downfield passing game. Ryan’s ability in that realm, as he was one of the better deep ball passers a season ago, given the Colts what they are looking for from their quarterback.