News broke yesterday that the Big Ten is expected to move their 2020 football season to a conference-only format, the next domino to fall in what is already becoming a season like no other.
The Big Ten is expected to announce today that it will go with a conference-only football schedule for this fall, a person with direct knowledge situation tells @TheAthleticCFB.
— Nicole Auerbach 😷 (@NicoleAuerbach) July 9, 2020
This news eliminates the Badgers’ matchups against Southern Illinois, Appalachian State and Notre Dame and removes many intriguing matchups from the early-season out-of-conference schedule.
Canceled games as a result of the Big Ten's conference only schedule include:
* Ohio State-Oregon
* Michigan-Washington
* Penn State-Virginia Tech
* Iowa-Iowa State
* Miami-Michigan State
* Wisconsin-Notre Dame— Field Yates (@FieldYates) July 9, 2020
Seen above, those games include Ohio State v Oregon, Michigan v Washington, Iowa v Iowa State and Penn State v Virginia Tech.
There are obviously still question marks surrounding the season and whether it will be able to happen.
One thing we can do now, though, is look at yesterday’s announcement and see how it affects the Badgers’ conference title and College Football Playoff chances.
My one takeaway: a conference-only schedule dramatically helps the Badgers’ shot at the College Football Playoff and sets up for the same scenario we’ve seen two of the last three years–a Big Ten Championship meeting with the Ohio State Buckeyes.
In their three out-of-conference games Paul Chryst and his team had two legitimate matchups to win in contests against Notre Dame and Appalachian State, the No. 13 and No. 19 schools respectively in CBSSports’ current Top 25.
What those two bouts would have done was first pose a significant threat to the Badgers’ slim chances of running the table, but also come in the two weeks leading up to Michigan and Minnesota, arguably the two most important games on the team’s schedule.
So the fact the team would’ve had a loss or two aside, having two tough contests before the two most important games on the schedule would have made it even more challenging for Chryst’s squad to continue their dominance in the Big Ten West.
So, what does the conference-only format leave the Badgers now?
First, the team now has Indiana to start the season before Michigan and Minnesota–this obviously assuming the conference does not rearrange the schedule which is very possible.
Not that Indiana is a guaranteed victory, but having an easier game to start the season and then time off before must-win games will be good for the team and increase their chances at victory.
Second, with Notre Dame and Appalachian State off the table the team has a legitimate shot at running the table before the conference championship–setting them up for a win-and-in game for the College Football Playoff like we saw in 2017.
Also, with those schools off the schedule the number of ranked opponents on the horizon dropped from five to three with two of those contests coming in Weeks 2 and 3.
Here are the 2019 records, in order, of the Badgers’ 2020 opponents:
Indiana: 8-5 (5-4)
Michigan: 9-4 (6-3)
Minnesota: 11-2 (7-2)
Maryland: 3-9 (1-8)
Illinois: 6-7 (4-5)
Northwestern: 3-9 (1-8)
Purdue: 4-8 (3-6)
Nebraska: 5-7 (3-6)
Iowa: 10-3 (6-2)
If the team can start out hot and go 3-0 against their first three opponents, running the table with this schedule becomes an increasingly-likely feat.
Much is still up in the air about the 2020 college football season but after yesterday’s news–if the season is able to happen–a Badger v Buckeye Big Ten Championship for a place in the College Football Playoff became a probable outcome. Will the Badgers finally get over the hump and take home their first Big Ten title since 2011? That is yet to be seen. But if you want to see Paul Chryst’s team in the playoff yesterdays news was great for those chances.