The Green Bay Packers again find themselves at a crossroads at the quarterback position. Will Aaron Rodgers return? Will he retire? Or will the Packers have the opportunity to trade him and begin the Jordan Love era?
After an 8-9 season in which the Packers missed the playoffs, one could reasonably argue that now is the time to move on from Rodgers. With limited cap space once again and very few significant cap-saving cuts that can be made, this roster is likely going to look somewhat similar in 2023. And because of that, even with internal improvements from several players, it’s difficult to envision a path for Green Bay to becoming Super Bowl contenders once again as currently constructed. Although no longer Super Bowl contenders, this is still a relatively well-put-together roster, making it the perfect time to evaluate Love as a full-time starter.
Perhaps Rodgers makes this easy on Green Bay and chooses to retire – then the problem basically solves itself. However, if he wants to return, and the Packers are ready to move on, a trade suddenly becomes very likely. But my question is, what exactly could Green Bay get in return?
To be transparent, I’m not going to make a guess of what that trade haul could look like – that always feels like a nearly impossible task. But what I will say is that I don’t believe it is going to be as robust as some may think. There has already been plenty of speculation on what that return for the Packers could look like, and several hypothetical trade packages consist of the Packers getting a few high picks – whether that be two firsts or a first and a second – in return. This is the part I have questions about.
For starters, Rodgers certainly didn’t play like an MVP last season. In fact, he wasn’t close. No, the conditions weren’t perfect for him, but we knew that going into the season. At $50 million per year, he was expected to lift this unit and help cover up many of those deficiencies on offense, but that wasn’t the case nearly often enough. This isn’t to say that Rodgers can’t get back to playing at a high level, but it’s not the guarantee it once was either.
I also imagine that most general managers are going to be a bit skeptical about sending multiple early-round draft picks to the Packers when Rodgers’ status from year to year is one giant question mark. That would be a lot of draft capital to give up for one season, especially for a quarterback who played closer to the league average rather than at an elite level.
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The timing of when this trade occurs is very important as well. From a salary cap perspective for the acquiring team, trading for Rodgers is actually quite reasonable, with the Packers still being on the hook for his signing bonus. Green Bay, meanwhile, would incur a roughly $40 million dead cap hit – money that stays on the books even if Rodgers is playing elsewhere – if Rodgers is traded before June 1st. If traded after June 1st, the Packers take roughly a $15 million dead cap hit in 2023 and $24 million in 2024.
So if traded after June 1st in 2023, it is possible that the Packers’ trade partner could be without a 2024 first-round pick (and likely more), and Rodgers could potentially retire at that point as well, leaving the acquiring team without a quarterback again, and this time no early round pick(s).
This example is a prime reason why I’m not so sure that other teams will be lining up to offer Green Bay whatever they want. There are a lot of risks that come with this move. This is very much the type of all-in move for a general manager that could very well lead to them being fired if things don’t pan out. And in this instance, “not panning out” could mean falling short of making it to the Super Bowl. I’m going to guess a simple playoff appearance won’t suffice.
I think we can all agree that the Packers’ window to maximize their return for Rodgers in a trade was last offseason. The opportunity to get a Russell Wilson-like haul has passed. I’m also not saying that the best the Packers could do is a couple of Day 2 picks or diminishing the value that a first-rounder and a conditional pick could have on this Packers team.
With that said, I would expect a more modest return for the reasons mentioned. At the end of the day, something is still better than nothing, and as the old saying goes, it only takes one team to express serious interest, and maybe this entire conversation becomes a moot point.
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