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ESPN has run a simulation of the entire NFL season using their Football Power Index (FPI) which has the Bills ranked No. 10 ahead of the 2020 regular season. In addition, the ESPN staff broke down their preview of the Bills following the FPI rankings.
The season projection has the Bills winning the AFC East with an 11-5 record, making the playoffs for the second consecutive season and making it to the second round of the postseason with a win.
The process employed is based on factors including expected starting quarterbacks, past performance, returning starters and projected win totals. These all combine to form a strength rating for each team to help predict game outcomes.
Here is the FPI projections for the Bills:
Overall ranking: 10
Offensive ranking: 19
Defensive ranking: 2
Special teams ranking: 18Total wins: 8.7
AFC East title chances: 39.3%
Chances to make playoffs: 59.7%
Super Bowl chances: 3%
2021 draft pick: No. 23FPI’s strength of schedule rank: 10
This year’s simulation is No. 3,869 out of 20,000 possible outcomes, the results of which also factor in NFL analyst Mike Clay’s individual player projections and stat leaders during the season.
These predictions may not account for some additional wins the team could pick up during actual games played, nor the scope of variables that can impact the team’s opponents’ seasons. Such was the case this week for Denver Broncos who lost Von Miller for the year due to injury. The simulation may not be perfect in its predictions, but suffice to say it could prove to be more accurate than other sports prediction-methods.
While the rankings and where the team might fall in the division may differ slightly by list, one consistent prediction is that the Bills will return to the postseason.
Let the games begin.
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