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We’ve learned over the past 24 hours that the Miami Dolphins are fielding inquiries about quarterback Josh Rosen. Despite Rosen’s underwhelming performance to start his career, it is still a bit of a surprise, especially given Tua Tagovailoa has yet to take an official snap for the team — you’d think cheap insurance would be a quality Miami looks to covet at the quarterback position, especially given what the team traded for him in the first place. There’s little to no chance the Dolphins would recover anything close to what they gave up for Rosen in the first place — remember, they traded a 2019 2nd-round pick (62 overall) to the Cardinals along with a 5th-round pick to get this deal done. Miami would ultimately recover the 5th-round pick anyway, but the price tag of a 2nd-round pick is a hefty one.
If the Dolphins can’t sniff that for compensation now, the question begs to be asked — what can the Dolphins get for a quarterback who struggled for three games during his only season in South Florida?
That’s a complicated question and, with little urgency and desperation from other teams across the league, it is a difficult one to peg down. One source of inspiration for a potential Rosen trade? The deal the Dolphins just struck with the Las Vegas Raiders to trade linebacker Raekwon McMillan. The Dolphins agreed to trade McMillan to Las Vegas by packaging the fourth-year linebacker with a 2021 5th-round pick; returning a 2021 4th-round selection back to the Dolphins. Assuming both teams finish in the middle of the pack in 2020, that will covet McMillan as approximately equal value to a 5th-round draft pick on his own.
The Dolphins could perhaps get the best return on Rosen by doing something similar — although the expected return should probably covet Rosen as a bit more high-priced than what the team recovered for McMillan.
The Dolphins currently own two 4th-round selections in the 2021 NFL Draft: their own and that of the Las Vegas Raiders courtesy of last weekend’s McMillan deal. What if the Dolphins packaged one of those picks with Rosen and returned a 3rd-round selection in the 2021 NFL Draft? That arrangement would give Miami two picks in each of the first three rounds of next April’s draft and it would also help soften the blow for any team that trades for Rosen and doesn’t feel comfortable giving up a high-priced asset.
If the Dolphins’ deal returned, hypothetically, the 85th pick in the 2021 NFL Draft when it was all said and done, that pick would be valued according to the Jimmy Johnson trade chart at 165 total points. Assuming Miami’s pick sent to a team trading for Rosen finished at 105 overall (either via Miami or Las Vegas), Rosen’s value in such a deal would be equal to that of the 104th pick in the 2021 NFL Draft — an early 4th-round value for Rosen as an asset in the deal.
Considering Miami gave up a late 2nd-round pick for Rosen in 2019, getting back the value of early 4th-rounder after a year of subpar play wouldn’t be too bad of a pill to swallow. And because Miami is sending a draft pick back with Rosen, perhaps this is an arrangement would could actually see come to life if a team is indeed intent of targeting Rosen this weekend.