With the remaining five games for LSU being a gauntlet of SEC teams playing much better than the Tigers are right now, let’s take a look at what the chances are of LSU finishing 6-6, four wins, or winning out the rest of the season using ESPN’s SP+ projections (subscription required).
Bill Connelly of ESPN and his SP+ projection statistic is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. The projection-based stat is intended to be “predictive and forward-facing,” as opposed to a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling.
It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. As Connelly describes it, if a team is lucky or unimpressive in a win, that team’s rating will probably fall. If they’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.
After LSU’s loss to Auburn, the Tigers’ chances of finishing 6-6 is now 36%, according to the SP+ projections. The chances of LSU finishing with only 4 wins is 8% and the chances of them finishing with 9 wins are 1%.
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I think I said before the season that anything between 6-6 and 12-0 from LSU wouldn't surprise me this year. Guess there's a 36% chance of me being surprised. https://t.co/mxPs7xuvmC
— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) October 4, 2021
LSU travels to No. 16 Kentucky next week and has road games against Ole Miss and Alabama remaining on the schedule. They also play Florida and Texas A&M at home. Head coach Ed Orgeron and the entire staff have their work cut out from them from here on out, and understandably, a lot is at stake.
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