What ACC’s scheduling change means for Clemson

Asked recently about the idea of ACC going to a 3-5-5 future scheduling format, Clemson coach Dabo Swinney said he was largely indifferent on the matter, though he acknowledged he has a soft spot for divisions. “As long as there’s some equity in how …

Asked recently about the idea of ACC going to a 3-5-5 future scheduling format, Clemson coach Dabo Swinney said he was largely indifferent on the matter, though he acknowledged he has a soft spot for divisions.

“As long as there’s some equity in how the schedule is done, I think it’s fine,” Swinney told The Clemson Insider last month.

The only connection Swinney and the rest of the league’s coaches will have to divisions going forward is memories as the new format is official. After weeks of discussion, the ACC on Tuesday announced its new football scheduling model, bidding adieu to the division era in the process. The revised format will go into effect starting with the 2023 season.

Here’s what the new scheduling framework means for Clemson:

Rivalries remain intact

The eight-game, 3-5-5 conference format means each team will have three permanent opponents while playing the league’s other 10 teams twice over a four-year period (five new opponents rotating on the schedule each year). Clemson’s permanent opponents are Georgia Tech, Florida State and North Carolina State, which means the Tigers will continue to play its primary conference rivals on an annual basis.

Known as the Textile Bowl, a nod to the schools being two of the largest university-level textile schools in the country, the Clemson-N.C. State matchup has been played every full season since 1971. The lone exception was 2020 when the coronavirus pandemic forced a temporary pause in the rivalry. The Tigers have won eight of the last nine meetings.

Georgia Tech, the closest ACC school in proximity to Clemson, has been on the Tigers’ schedule every year since 1983. Meanwhile, the Clemson-Florida State matchup has turned into one of the league’s more anticipated games in recent years. The Tigers have won the last six meetings, but in eight of the last nine matchups, at least one team has been ranked in the top 5 at the time the game was played. Clemson and FSU are the only ACC teams that have represented the league in the College Football Playoff.

Potential bump in strength of schedule

According to ESPN, Clemson’s permanent opponents have a combined winning percentage of just 36.5% against Power Five opponents over the last three years. It’s not great for the Tigers’ strength of schedule, but it’s also been somewhat skewed by the lack of success at Georgia Tech, which has won just nine games in Geoff Collins’ first three seasons at the helm.

FSU has tailed off, too, but the Seminoles showed during the Bobby Bowden and Jimbo Fisher eras what they’re capable of when they’re going good. FSU, which pushed Clemson to the brink last season, improved on its win total in its second season under Mike Norvell and just signed a top-20 recruiting class, indications that the Seminoles could be trending back up. Meanwhile, N.C. State has turned a corner under Dave Doeren, posting its third nine-win season in five years a season ago. The Wolfpack are again considered one of Clemson’s primary challengers in the Atlantic Division this fall, and it would help the Tigers if N.C. State remained that type of program moving forward.

Outside of the primary opponents, rotating five new teams on the slate every year also not only means Clemson is assured of playing every conference opponent within a two-year span, but it also increases the Tigers’ chances of catching another team during a successful season, thus improving Clemson’s odds of notching another quality win or two. Between some of the ACC’s historically strong programs being down and getting just one new cross-division opponent each year with the current scheduling format, that’s something that’s been hard for the Tigers to do in recent years.

But assuming Clemson maintains its place among the ACC’s elite beyond the ‘22 season, notching wins over stronger opponents on the league slate every year would only enhance the Tigers’ postseason resume in their pursuit of a playoff berth.

Divisions out, percentage in

Clemson will have to win the Atlantic Division this fall in order to qualify for the ACC championship game. After this year, though, that will no longer be the case.

With the league abolishing divisions, Clemson will need one of the league’s top two conference winning percentages. That’s how championship game participants will be determined beginning in 2023.

The path for the ACC to make its own rules for determining its title game participants was cleared earlier this year when the NCAA did away with its restrictions on conference autonomy in that regard. The ACC is the second Power Five conference to eliminate divisions, joining the Pac-12. The Mountain West has done the same.