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The blockbuster Matthew Stafford trade that sent the 12-year veteran to the Los Angeles Rams probably won’t be the biggest trade involving a quarterback this offseason. Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson wants out, and his market will likely be robust enough that the Texans can’t afford to play the waiting game with him.
In the event that Watson does get dealt, the Houston Chronicle’s John McClain offered a picture of what it might take to pry the three-time Pro Bowler away from the Texans. He noted the deal between the Lions and Rams won’t play a role in setting the market for Watson, but the two first-round picks, one third-round pick and starting quarterback that landed Stafford in Los Angeles doesn’t touch McClain’s guess at a Watson deal:
The Rams-Lions trade will have nothing to do with a Watson trade if the Texans do it. They'll want 2 ones, 2 twos and 2 young defensive starters, at the least. Watson, 25, under contract, great QB, team leader, beloved by fans, pillar of the community. Start with the Jets.
— John McClain (@McClain_on_NFL) January 31, 2021
Two first-round picks, two second-round picks and a pair of young defensive starters is a steep price for any one player. Some teams would argue though that no price is too high for a 24-year-old franchise quarterback.
One of the possible hurdles San Francisco would have to clear in acquiring Watson is just the sheer number of assets it might take. They have their own first-round picks to work with, and their own second-round selections, so the draft compensation wouldn’t be difficult.
Where things could get potentially interesting, and sticky for San Francisco, is the players the Texans might want in return.
The 49ers have a number of young players a team may covet in a trade, but given the nature of the situation with a franchise QB on the other end of the deal, the Texans’ starting point for negotiations would likely begin with Nick Bosa and Fred Warner.
It’s hard to imagine San Francisco would deal their franchise’s defensive cornerstones along with all the picks. A quarterback is important, but dealing Bosa and Warner would effectively signal a complete rebuild for a defense San Francisco already spent three years piecing together. Watson is great and quarterback is the most important position on the field, but blowing up the foundation of the defense that spearheaded a Super Bowl run just a season ago seems drastic.
The 49ers might be willing to deal one of those two players and a couple picks to Houston, but giving away multiple game-changing All-Pro caliber players from an already formidable front seven is antithetical to everything general manager John Lynch and head coach Kyle Shanahan have done from a team-building standpoint over the last four years.
Granted, the entire nature of this deal runs counter to Lynch and Shanahan’s previous offseasons. They’ve shown a willingness to move draft picks when it comes at a relatively low cost. Their trades have never involved first-round picks, save for their trade up in the 2020 draft from No. 31 to No. 25.
Should San Francisco decide to wade into these waters though, they could wind up moving DL Javon Kinlaw and LB Dre Greenlaw, for example. Two young defensive starters with qualities to become bona fide stars in the NFL. They’re also the type of players the 49ers could more easily replace than the likes of Bosa and Warner. Kinlaw was the No. 14 overall pick, but tracking down starting-caliber defensive tackles is easier than tracking down game-wrecking edge rushers.
Arik Armstead is another player Houston may be willing to take on. He has a fairly sizable contract, but a versatile defensive lineman who can stay on the field and be effective for three downs could be enticing for a young, rebuilding defense.
Any move the 49ers make in the Watson sweepstakes will be outside of their comfort zone, and to complete a trade of this magnitude it’s going to hurt a little for San Francisco. They’re not going to be able to sneak out with a bargain, even in the universe where Watson actively forces his way to the Bay Area.