1. What It All Means: Week 11
And after all of that, and after all of the fuss, Alabama is still probably going to find its way into this thing.
For a while there early on this season, it was easy to envision the possibility of a College Football Playoff with four first-time programs to the fun.
Wisconsin was crushing and killing, Penn State was coming up with a few nice wins, LSU was ripping everyone apart, and Florida was looking promising. At the moment, Minnesota and Baylor are wonderful stories that keep on going.
But we all know how this is probably going to play out.
After this weekend, LSU is all but locked into a College Football Playoff spot for the first time. It’ll take a total collapse – two losses – to miss out, even if it loses the SEC Championship.
Clemson would have to come up with an epic gag to not go 13-0, and Ohio State is probably going to get either Minnesota or Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship – neither one has more than a haymaker of a shot at pulling that off.
And if Penn State beats Ohio State to get to the Big Ten Championship? Then we have a wild debate about what to do with the 11-1 Buckeyes, but they’re looking untouchable at the moment.
Which leaves the elephant in the room.
Alabama-LSU Scores Big for CBS as Rating Increases 47% Over Last Years Matchup. https://t.co/OyDnm72eCH pic.twitter.com/Qnt1OarKse
— CBS Sports PR (@CBSSportsGang) November 10, 2019
If the committee blew off Alabama’s resumé the first time around and ranked it No. 3 on all eye-test, then what happens now when the one loss is to the team that’s probably going to be No. 1 the rest of the way?
If it’ll be LSU, Ohio State and Clemson, who’s that fourth option?
Oregon? It lost to Auburn. If Bama beats Auburn at Auburn to close things out – especially if it does so impressively – that’s it. That’s the cover for the CFP, even if the Ducks go 12-1 and win the Pac-12 title.
Utah? The loss to USC on the road could be a hard-ceiling to getting into the CFP.
Minnesota might get to the Big Ten Championship, but if it loses, at 12-1 it won’t get in over 11-1 Alabama. 2017 Wisconsin was 12-0 before losing to Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship and was left out for … 11-1 Bama.
Oklahoma? At 12-1, if it beats Baylor twice, maybe, but there’s nothing WOW on the resumé – which isn’t fair, considering Auburn would be the only big thing Bama could crow about.
Georgia? If it wins out, yeah, it’s in and Bama is out, but in the College Football Playoff rankings leading up to the finish line, losing at home to South Carolina stings.
So as the rankings keep coming out every Tuesday night, get ready for a whole lot of screaming and yelling from a portion of the public that thinks the CFP committee, ESPN, and the college football gods are biased towards the SEC and the Crimson Tide.
But that’s the problem with the system. Alabama might have just been rocked at home by LSU, and it might not have anything on its schedule worth chirping about, and it still might be considered one of the four best teams by the committee.
CFN 1-130 Rankings | Bowl Projections
Early Week 12 Line Lookahead
Rankings: AP | USA Today Coaches | FWAA
– Chad Morris fired: 5 possible options
– Predicting Second CFP Rankings
– Predicting every remaining game, conference race
Quick Thoughts: Big Ten | Big 12 | SEC
– 10 Quick Thoughts On LSU 46, Alabama 41
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