The Washington Nationals (42-44) visit the San Francisco Giants (54-32) Friday to start a three-game set at Oracle Park. First pitch is scheduled for 9:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Nationals vs. Giants odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Tied 2-2.
RHP Paolo Espino is on the rubber for the Nationals. Espino is 2-2 with a 2.48 ERA (40 IP, 11 ER), 0.93 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 6.3 K/9 across four starts and 15 relief appearances.
- Last outing: No-decision with 4 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 3 BB and 2 K in Washington’s 5-3 loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers Saturday.
- 2021 road splits: 0-0 with a 3.65 ERA (12 1/3 IP, 5 ER), 0.97 WHIP and 5.0 K/BB rate across 10 bullpen outings.
RHP Logan Webb is San Francisco’s starter. Webb is 4-3 with a 3.86 ERA (49 IP, 21 ER), 1.29 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 over nine starts and one bullpen outing.
- Last outing: Win, 11-6, with 5 IP, 1 ER, 1 H, 0 BB and 7 K at the Los Angeles Dodgers May 29. Webb is making his first start since coming off the IL with a right shoulder strain.
- 2021 home splits: 2-0 with a 1.89 ERA (19 IP, 4 ER), 1.11 WHIP and 3.6 K/BB rate over three starts and one relief appearance.
MLB betting offers/promotions
BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.
- Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
- RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!
Nationals at Giants odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:20 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Nationals +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Giants -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Nationals +1.5 (-155) | Giants -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Prediction
Giants 8, Nationals 5
Money line (ML)
GIMME the GIANTS (-150) for 1 unit because Webb has way better stuff than Espino and the Nationals’ 9-8 loss in their series finale against the San Diego Padres Thursday was so terrible it could carry into Friday.
Washington was up 8-0 against San Diego All-Star Yu Darvish heading into the bottom of the 4th inning, with All-Star Max Scherzer on the bump, before Scherzer gave up 7 earned runs and the Padres ended finishing the job on the Nationals’ bullpen. I’d argue that kind of loss has a carry-over effect.
Furthermore, Webb’s pitching peripherals are far better than Espino’s. Webb grades in the 74th percentile or better in hard-hit rate, exit velocity, expected wOBA, chase rate and expected slugging percentage.
On the other side, Espino grades in the 25th percentile or worse in hard-hit rate, exit velocity, expected slugging percentage, whiff rate and barrel rate.
Also, Washington’s lineup should easier for Webb to navigate since Nationals slugger Kyle Schwarber is currently on the IL and Schwarber was one of the hottest batters in the majors before suffering a “significant hamstring strain” last weekend.
FANTASY BASEBALL: Serious about winning your league? Sign up for BaseballHQ.com to dominate the competition. Subscribe now!
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Slight “LEAN” to the GIANTS -1.5 (+125) a quarter unit because San Francisco has the second-highest cover rate at home (23-17 ATS) and Washington’s bullpen is mediocre to below-average.
Moreover, the Nationals’ relievers are a bit overworked since Scherzer didn’t make it out of the 4th inning Thursday and Espino isn’t an “innings eater” as he averages just two innings pitched per outing.
I expect the Giants to extend whatever lead they get against Espino on Washington’s bullpen and five of San Francisco’s seven wins during Webb outings have been by at least two runs.
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 8.5 (-115) for a quarter unit – if at all – since the market is backing the Over more so than the Under.
However, I much prefer the San Francisco sides, especially the Giants money line, then the total in this game.
PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!
Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.
Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]