The Washington Nationals (41-80) and the San Diego Padres (66-56) meet for the 3rd contest of a 4-game set at Petco Park Saturday. First pitch is scheduled for 8:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Nationals vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Nationals lead 3-2
The Nationals traded two-time All-Star and budding superstar Juan Soto to the Padres at the non-waiver deadline, but Washington has gotten the last laugh in this series so far. Soto is 0-for-6 with 2 BB and 3 K in the 2 losses at Petco to open the series.
The Padres have struggled mightily, going 2-5 across the past 7 games. San Diego has had a little bit of a hangover since news came down last week that SS Fernando Tatis Jr. would be suspended for the rest of the regular season after testing positive for a banned substance.
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Nationals at Padres projected starters
RHP Josiah Gray vs. RHP Joe Musgrove
Gray (7-8, 4.79 ERA) makes his 23rd start. He has a 1.29 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 in 118 1/3 IP.
- Allowed 3 ER, 5 H and 2 BB with 10 K across 6 IP in a no-decision against the Chicago Cubs last time out Monday.
- Has posted 4 or more K in 12 consecutive starts dating back to June 3.
- Is 5-1 with an impressive 3.21 ERA and .205 opponent batting average with 68 K across 61 2/3 IP in 11 road starts.
Musgrove (8-6, 2.98 ERA) makes his 22nd start. He has a 1.03 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 133 IP.
- Is just 3-3 across 62 2/3 IP in 10 home starts, but he has a stellar 2.87 ERA and .215 opponent BA.
- Has allowed 1 HR in 5 consecutive starts dating back to July 24, and he has served up 14 HR across 133 IP this season.
Nationals at Padres odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:30 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Nationals +250 (bet $100 to win $250) | Padres -320 (bet $320 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Nationals +1.5 (+105) | Padres -1.5 (-130)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)
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Nationals at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 3, Nationals 2
Money line
Let the past 2 days serve as a cautionary tale – never bet heavy, heavy favorites. The Padres (-320) will cost you more than 3 times your potential return, and bettors who made that foolish bet the past 2 games were bitten hard.
PASS.
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Run line/Against the spread
The NATIONALS +1.5 (+105) have arrived in Southern California with revenge on their minds, beating old friend Soto and the championship-hopeful Padres -1.5 (-130) in the first 2 games.
Washington has been scrappy in this series, and they’re a good bet to keep it close, if not win outright on the road again. Gray has been tremendous away from home, while Musgrove is a .500 pitcher at Petco this season.
Over/Under
The UNDER 7.5 (-115) is the play, as the Padres offense is not hitting on all cylinders, and Gray will make sure that continues.
The Under is 7-3 in the past 10 games for the Nats against NL West teams, while the Under is 5-2 in the past 7 games overall for the Padres and 5-2 in the past 7 tries vs. NL East foes, too.
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