The Washington Nationals (39-80) head to SoCal to face the San Diego Padres (66-54) Thursday in the opener of a 4-game set at Petco Park. First pitch is set for 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Nationals vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Padres lead 2-1
The Nationals’ trail of tears continues as they’ve lost 7 of 10 and 21 of 30. They’ve been outscored 61-33 in the last 10 games. 1B Joey Meneses is receiving an extended look and paying dividends as he’s 11-for-29 (.379) with a home run over the last 7 games. He enters with an 11-game hitting streak and has a hit in 12 of his 13 games since being called up Aug. 2.
The Friars have been so-so of late despite making a huge splash at the trade deadline. They’re 5-5 over the last 10 and 11-9 over the last 20. They’re a good home team, though, at 33-24. They beat Washington in 2 of 3 at their stadium last weekend.
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Nationals at Padres projected starters
RHP Anibal Sanchez vs. RHP Yu Darvish
Sanchez (0-5, 7.20 ERA) will make his 7th start of the season. He has a 1.60 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 in 30 IP.
- Last outing: No-decision, 5 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 2 HR, 3 BB, 4 K in 4-3 home win vs. San Diego Saturday
- Allowed at least 3 ER in each of his 6 starts
Darvish (10-6, 3.40 ERA) makes his 23rd start. He has a 1.01 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 in 140 1/3 IP.
- Last outing: Loss, 6 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 2 HR, 1 BB, 9 K in 4-3 setback at Washington Saturday
- Much better pitcher at home with a 2.17 ERA, 0.81 WHIP vs. 4.50 ERA and 1.19 WHIP on the road
Nationals at Padres odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:58 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Nationals +300 (bet $100 to win $300) | Padres -400 (bet $400 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Nationals +2.5 (-103) | Padres -2.5 (-117)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: +105 | U: -130)
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Nationals at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 6, Nationals 3
Money line
No, that’s not a typo. The Padres are -400 favorites to win this game, which means you’d have to risk $40 to win $10. So, let’s look elsewhere.
Sanchez has been awful in each start, recording more than 15 outs just once in 6 tries. He has allowed 3 ER or more in all of them, which makes PADRES OVER 3.5 RUNS FIRST 5 INNINGS (+110) worth a roll of the dice. If you can find Padres OVER 2.5 runs first 5 innings, hammer it!
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Run line/Against the spread
Normally, I wouldn’t consider playing a 2.5 RL, but 8 of the Padres’ last 9 wins have been by 3 or more runs. Darvish is great at home, and I’ll risk a QUARTER UNIT on PADRES -2.5 (-117).
Over/Under
The wind is blowing in from left-center at 8 mph, which explains the opening 7.5 O/U line. The Over is 2-0-2 in the Nationals’ last 4 road games against a team with a winning record. The Over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between the teams and 4-0 in the last 4 in San Diego.
TAKE OVER 8.5 (+105). However, if you’re willing to lay a little juice, I can see backing the alternate line of OVER 7.5 (-135).
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