The San Diego Padres (50-36) host the Washington Nationals (40-42) for the first game of their four-game set at Petco Park Monday. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Nationals vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.
San Diego snapped a three-game losing skid by beating the Philadelphia Phillies 11-1 Sunday. The Padres have won 13 of their last 20 games.
Washington was swept in a four-game series at the Los Angeles Dodgers and has cooled off a bit recently but is also 13-7 in the last 20 games.
Season series: 0-0.
Washington hasn’t officially announced its starter yet but LHP Jon Lester is the projected starter. He is 2-3 with a 5.34 ERA (57 1/3 IP, 34 ER), 1.55 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 6.1 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: Win, 15-6, with 5 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 2 BB and 3 K Wednesday against the Tampa Bay Rays.
- vs. Padres on the current roster: 82 at-bats with a .256/.358/.463 slash line, 23/12 K/BB, 4 HR and 12 RBIs.
RHP Joe Musgrove takes the hill for the Padres. He is 5-6 with a 2.63 ERA (89 IP, 26 ER), 0.88 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 over 15 starts and one relief appearance.
- Last outing: Win, 7-5, with 4 IP, 5 ER, 4 H, 3 BB and 3 K at the Cincinnati Reds Wednesday in a game that ended after the top of the 6th inning due to rain.
- vs. Nationals on the current roster: 51 at-bats with a .196/.226/.314 slash line, 11/2 K/BB, 1 HR and 6 RBIs.
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Nationals at Padres odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 5:45 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Nationals +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Padres -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Off the board (OTB)
- Over/Under: 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Padres 7, Phillies 2
Money line (ML)
BET the PADRES (-250) for 1 unit because they have an edge in both starting and bullpen pitching and have a more productive lineup.
Both lineups have been raking lately as each ranks in the top 10 of MLB over the last 14 days in several advanced hitting categories such as WAR, wRC+, wOBA and hard-hit rate.
However, Musgrove has been strong through the first half of the season despite his losing record and should be eager to bounce back to form in his last start before the All-Star break after getting pelted in his previous outing.
The Padres are also fully loaded while the Nationals could be without a few everyday players including the red-hot OF Kyle Schwarber and C Yan Gomes.
Furthermore, Lester’s road splits are even worse than his home splits. He is 0-2 on the road with a 7.41 ERA (4.46 home ERA), a 1.1 K/BB rate (2.2 K/BB rate at home) and a .988 opponent’s OPS (.788 opponent’s OPS at home).
Also, San Diego has one of the best bullpens in the majors. The Padres relief corps is top five in K-BB%, left-on-base percentage, xFIP and SIERA.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
No odds listed at the time of publishing.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the OVER 8 (-105) for one-third of a unit because Padres hitters should rake Lester and Musgrove’s ERA, WHIP and K/BB rate have worsened over the past three months.
However, it’s only a “lean” since Washington’s lineup could be without a couple of key bats and we are still awaiting the final lineup cards for both teams.
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