The Washington Nationals (12-19) head to the City of Brotherly Love to start a 4-game series versus the Philadelphia Phillies (14-15) Monday. The first pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park. Below, we analyze the Nationals-Phillies MLB betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.
Nationals at Phillies: Projected starting pitchers
RHP Erick Fedde vs. RHP Spencer Howard
Fedde in 2020: 1-2 with a 3.57 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 2.4 K/9 and 4.0 BB/9 in 22 2/3 IP over 6 games (3 starts).
- Last start: Loss in 5 IP with 7 H, 4 ER, 1 strikeout and 1 walk against the Phillies on Aug. 25.
- Career vs. Phillies: 2-2 with a 4.78 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 17 K and 13 BB in 26 1/3 IP over 6 games (5 starts).
Howard made his MLB debut earlier this season and has a 0-1 record with a 6.17 ERA, 8.5 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 in 11 2.3 IP (3 starts).
- Last start: No-decision in 3 2/3 IP with 5 H, 1 ER, 5 K, 2 BB in a 3-2 loss at the Toronto Blue Jays on Aug. 20.
Get some action on this game or any other matchup with an MLB bet at BetMGM in NJ, IN, CO and WV. Bet now!
Nationals at Phillies: Key injuries
(Get the latest injury news here.)
Nationals
- 2B Starlin Castro (wrist) out
Phillies
- RP Jose Alvarez (groin) out
- RF Jay Bruce (quadriceps) out
Also see: BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
Nationals at Phillies: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:50 p.m. ET.
Prediction
Phillies 7, Nationals 3
Moneyline (ML)
The PHILLIES (-143) have won 5 of their last 6 games, which includes back-to-back road wins against the Nationals, Aug. 25-26. They lost a 12-10 slugfest against the Atlanta Braves Sunday.
The Nationals (+130) have the opposite results as Philadelphia recently, losing 5 of 6 games, which includes dropping a 3-game series to the lowly Boston Red Sox, 2-1, this past weekend.
What draws me toward Philadelphia is the market/pricing of the lines. Howard is the Phillies’ top pitching prospect and has yet to make it past the 5th inning.
Also, the Phillies have the worst bullpen ERA in the majors and the Nationals are a much stronger road team (8-7 in away games, 4-12 in home games). But BetMGM knew this prior to making the line. They want bettors to chase the value and bet against the inexperienced Howard.
Let’s eat the vig and TAKE PHILLIES (-143) on the moneyline. New to sports betting? A $143 wager on the Phillies (-143) returns a $100 profit if Philadelphia beats Washington.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The Phillies’ -1.5 (+135) bullpen is too bad to back them on a run line wager. There is definitely a scenario where the Nationals’ above-average lineup chases Howard early and we get another slugfest.
For the record, that’s not my handicap but it could happen. Either way, PASS ON THE RUN LINE.
Over/Under (O/U)
My feeling toward the total is a LEAN UNDER 10.5 (-110). Both lineups are in the top-10 in several categories and the pitching matchup sets up well for an Over.
I think we get a quality start out of Howard, the Phillies lineup gets out to an early lead and this game dies out. The Under is 4-0 in the last 4 games in Philadelphia and it’ll be 5 straight after today.
(I don’t like playing totals so I’d only wager a fraction of the moneyline bet on the Under).
Want some action on this game? Place a bet at BetMGM now. For more sports betting tips and advice, visit SportsbookWire.com.
Follow @Geoffery_Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]