The Washington Nationals (5-13) and Minnesota Twins (11-8) open a 3-game series Friday at Target Field. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Nationals vs. Twins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting since 2019 season when Nationals won 2 of 3; all-time series is 9-9
The Nationals lost 4-0 as +127 home underdogs vs. the Baltimore Orioles Wednesday. The Orioles took oth games against the Nationals, who have lost 6 of their last 7 games.
The Twins lost 11-5 as +104 underdogs at the Boston Red Sox Thursday. The Twins dropped the 3-game series 2-1 and have lost 4 of their last 5 contests.
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Nationals at Twins projected starters
RHP Trevor Williams vs. RHP Tyler Mahle
Williams (1-1, 3.52 ERA) makes his 4th start. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 5.3 K/9 in 15 1/3 IP.
- No-decision last Friday vs. the Cleveland Guardians: 5 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 2 K
- Only career start vs. Minnesota: 7 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5 K in a loss Aug. 5, 2020, as a member of the Pittsburgh Pirates
Mahle (1-2, 4.11 ERA) makes his 4th start. He has a 1.44 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 10.6 K/9 in 15 1/3 IP.
- Lost Saturday at the New York Yankees: 4 1/3 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 5 K
- 5 career starts vs. Washington: 3-1 with a 4.50 ERA (24 IP, 12 ER)
Nationals at Twins odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:32 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Nationals +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Twins -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Nationals +1.5 (-115) | Twins -1.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Nationals at Twins picks and predictions
Prediction
Twins 4, Nationals 2
Moneyline
PASS.
The Twins (-225) are 11-5 in their last 16 games vs. right-handed starters and should win again Friday, but there is no need to pay the higher price on the moneyline when Minnesota should win by multiple runs. Bet the run line and/or total instead.
Run line/Against the spread
BET TWINS -1.5 (-105).
Two of the Nationals’ last 3 losses have been by multiple runs. Washington has struggled offensively lately and scored just 1 run in its 2-game series vs. Baltimore.
Three of the Twins’ last 4 wins have been by multiple runs and Minnesota should be able to take advantage of a Nationals team that is in a slump offensively.
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Over/Under
BET UNDER 7.5 (-105).
The Under is 5-2-1 in Washington’s last 8 games and 35-17-1 in its last 53 after an off day.
The Under has gone 3-0-1 in Minnesota’s last 4 home games and should cash again Sunday as Washington’s offense continues to struggle.
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