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The Washington Nationals (37-56) and Chicago Cubs (43-49) open up a 3-game set at Wrigley Field Monday. First pitch is at 8:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Nationals vs. Cubs odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Nationals lead 3-1
The Nats have played a bit better of late, though they’re 3-7 over the last 10. They have 9 wins in their last 20 games. SS CJ Abrams has came out of the All-Star break raking, going 6-for-13 (.462), with 3 extra-base hits and 2 steals.
The Cubs have been stuck in neutral, unable to string wins together. They’re 5-5 and 9-11 over the last 10 and 20 games, respectively, and have fallen 8 games out of the NL Central. This will be a big week in determining their course of action for the trade deadline with a 7-game homestand against the Nats and St. Louis Cardinals.
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Nationals at Cubs projected starters
LHP MacKenzie Gore vs. LHP Drew Smyly
Gore (4-7, 4.42 ERA) makes his 19th start. He has a 1.46 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 10.8 K/9 in 89 2/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 1 1/3 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 0 BB, 1 K – in a rain-shortened appearance against the Cincinnati Reds on July 6
- 2 career starts vs. Cubs: 0-2, 7.00 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, 10 K in 9 IP
Smyly (7-6, 4.31 ERA) makes his 19th start. He has a 1.36 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 in 94 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 4 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 4 BB, 3 K against New York Yankees July 8
- Last 5 starts vs. Nationals: 2-0, 3.04 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 20 K in 26 2/3 IP
Nationals at Cubs odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:08 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Nationals +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Cubs -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Nationals +1.5 (-175) | Cubs -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Nationals at Cubs picks and predictions
Prediction
Cubs 5, Nationals 3
Moneyline
The Cubs are much better against left-handed pitchers than the Nats. Chicago is 16-11 against southpaws, and the Nats are just 11-24. Add in that Smyly has given up just 9 ER in 26 2/3 innings over his last 5 starts against Washington, and we have a heavy lean to Chicago.
Gore had his worst start of the year two starts back, his last start was cut short due to rain, and the All-Star break came after. So he has really only pitched 4 innings in 3 weeks.
Take the CUBS (-140).
Run line/Against the spread
Half of the last 10 games between the sides have been decided by 1 run. I don’t trust the Nats enough to pay -175 for them to keep it close, though.
So one prop that has some traction is Smyly’s K’s. He has only struck out 5 batters once in his last 8 starts and only did it once in his last 5 against the Nationals. I’ll take DREW SMYLY UNDER 4.5 K’S (-135).
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Over/Under
The Over is 4-6 in this matchup over the last 10 games. We haven’t seen 8 runs in a contest between these clubs this year or in their last 5 meetings overall. The only worry that I have is that Smyly has given up 14 ER in 11 1/3 IP over his last 3 starts, and Gore could be rusty from throwing 4 innings in 3 weeks. There also could be a light breeze blowing out at Wrigley.
I’m going to PASS.
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