The Tampa Bay Lightning (16-11-3) host the Metropolitan Division-leading Washington Capitals (23-5-5) Saturday at Amalie Arena for a 7 p.m. ET puck drop. We analyze the Capitals-Lightning sports betting odds and lines, while providing NHL betting tips and picks around this matchup.
Capitals at Lightning: Projected starting goalies
Braden Holtby vs. Andrei Vasilevskiy
Holtby has won five of his last six starts, and he has posted a .917 save percentage with a total of 16 goals allowed over the stretch. He is 16-3-4 on the year with a .911 SV% and 2.80 goals against average.
Vasilevskiy has rung off three straight wins with a total of five goals allowed. He is 13-8-1 on the year with a .910 SV% and 2.78 GAA, but the numbers are starting to correct for the reigning Vezina Trophy winner.
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Capitals at Lightning: Odds, picks and betting tips
Odds courtesy of BetMGM; access them at USA TODAY Sports for a full set of today’s betting odds. Odds last updated at 11:25 a.m. ET.
Prediction
Capitals 3, Lightning 1
Moneyline (ML)
The Lightning (-139) enter off of two unconvincing wins over the Florida Panthers (2-1) and Boston Bruins (3-2). The CAPITALS (+115) are slight road underdogs and are a good play at plus-money. They’re 14-2-1 on the road for the year and are coming off a 2-1 victory over the same Bruins Wednesday.
The Caps claimed a 4-3 overtime victory in Washington Nov. 29 in the first meeting of the year between the two sides. Washington is 7-2-1 over its last 10 games while Tampa Bay is 5-4-1.
Puck Line/Against the Spread (ATS)
The CAPITALS (+1.5, -227) can also be played on the puck line where they’ll need to either lose by just 1 goal or win outright. It’s a much chalkier pick with a $10 bet returning a profit of $4.40 versus the $11.50 return on the moneyline.
Washington is 18-15 against the puck line overall and 13-4 as the visitor. Tampa Bay is just 12-18 overall and 6-9 at home. Just nine of the Lightning’s 16 victories were by multi-goal margins. The Caps have just four losses by two or more goals.
Over/Under (O/U)
Take the UNDER 6.5 (-125) in the day’s marquee goaltending matchup. Both teams hit the Over just five times in their last 10 games and both ‘tenders are settling into their career norms after shaky starts to the year. Don’t be surprised if this total drops to 6 or 5.5 closer to game time, so get it early.
Esten’s NHL betting record: 123-98
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