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We’re 12 weeks into the season and if you’re fortunate enough, you’re still alive in your NFL survivor pool.
As mentioned in the 1st survivor column of the season, these things are not easy.
We opened with back-to-back victories using the Baltimore Ravens and Denver Broncos, but lost in Week 3 when the Los Angeles Chargers were upset at home by Jacksonville Jaguars 38-10. So much for the Chargers being 6.5-point favorites.
While the loss would have eliminated us from a survivor pool, our goal was to help you in picking winners. Plus, some survivor pools allow for 2 or 3 losses before elimination.
We bounced back with wins in Week 4 (Green Bay Packers) and Week 5 (Buffalo Bills), but then lost when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers dropped a 20-18 stunner at the Pittsburgh Steelers as 10-point favorites in Week 6.
We’ve gone 4-2 since but currently are on a 3-game win streak. Hopefully, we can lead you in the right direction for a few more weeks and help you win bragging rights … and possibly some money.
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The chalk: Seattle Seahawks
Who they play: At Los Angeles Rams – 4:05 p.m. (FOX)
Seattle is coming off a 40-34 loss in overtime to the Las Vegas Raiders last Sunday. An 86-yard TD by Raiders RB Josh Jacobs will do that. So will allowing 229 rushing yards to Jacobs.
Luckily, the Rams have no such running back. At this point, they actually don’t have much of anyone left.
With WRs Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson out, Los Angeles is counting on WRs Van Jefferson and Ben Skowronek. Plus, QB Matthew Stafford still has not cleared the concussion process and DE Aaron Donald has been ruled out for this Seattle game.
Los Angeles has nothing and is pretty much done for the season.
Seattle, on the other hand, still has a lot to play for. The Seahawks (6-5) are only 1 game behind the NFC-West leading San Francisco 49ers (7-4) and have a legitimate shot at a playoff berth. Heading into Week 13, they’re on the outside looking in, but they’re only ½ game out.
Seattle needs wins and this is one of its easiest games in which to get one.
With QB Geno Smith and WRs Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf, the pass game is in great shape to take advantage of the Rams’ struggling secondary, including CB Jalen Ramsey, who has just 1 interception on the season — back in Week 2.
Seahawks rookie RB Kenneth Walker III (613 rushing yards with 9 TDs) is Tipico Sportsbook’s current favorite (-180) for Offensive Rookie of the Year. With Donald missing, Walker should have a field day against the Rams line.
This game shouldn’t be close — the Seahawks are 7.5-point favorites — and therefore SEATTLE is my FAVORITE SURVIVOR PICK for Week 13.
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Off the board: Dallas Cowboys
Who they play: Home vs. Indianapolis Colts – 8:20 p.m. (NBC)
While Indy QB Matt Ryan (22 of 34 for 199 passing yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) and RB Jonathan Taylor (86 rushing yards, 1 TD) looked OK Monday night in a 24-17 home loss to the Steelers. the rest of the team needs help.
The defense still has DL DeForest Buckner on the line, which will help against Dallas RBs and Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott in the run game. But without LB Shaquille Leonard (season-ending surgery), the pass defense will not be as effective, which will allow Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb and TE Dalton Schultz to run free and make plays for QB Dak Prescott.
On defense, I expect the Cowboys to give up yards to Taylor. This has been the weak part of the Dallas defense all season. But the pass rush with stud LB Micah Parsons will sack Ryan several times. Being pressured constantly, Ryan will not have enough time to find WRs Michael Pittman Jr, Parris Campbell and Alec Pierce.
This will force the Colts to be one dimensional. Taylor will run for more than 100 yards, but Dallas will do far more on offense and win this game after an extended rest since it last played Thanksgiving Day.
If you can’t take Seattle, TAKE DALLAS as your Week 13 survivor pick.
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Other to consider
Cleveland Browns: At Houston Texans – 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
More NFL Week 13 picks and predictions
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