The No. 6 Virginia Cavaliers (21-5, 13-4 ACC) battle the North Carolina Tar Heels (17-11, 9-8) at Dean E. Smith Center. Tip is set for 6 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Virginia vs. North Carolina odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.
Rankings courtesy of the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll.
The Cavaliers beat the Tar Heels 65-58 at home on Jan. 10, covering as 4.5-point favorites as the Under (132.5) connected.
Virginia is coming off a 63-48 loss at Boston College Wednesday, failing to cover as a 9.5-point underdog. The Cavaliers are 0-3 against the spread (ATS) in their last 3 games and 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 road games. They are 10-15-1 ATS on the season.
The Tar Heels are an ACC-worst 8-19-1 ATS this season. They are 0-3 over their last 3 contests and 1-7 ATS over their last 8. They are coming off a 63-59 road win over Notre Dame Wednesday, failing to cover as 6-point favorites.
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Virginia at North Carolina odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:23 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Virginia +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | North Carolina -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Virginia +2.5 (-105) | North Carolina -2.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 130.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Virginia at North Carolina picks and predictions
Prediction
North Carolina 66, Virginia 62
Moneyline
PASS.
I like North Carolina (-150) to win at home, but the current odds do not represent a good enough value to wager it as a straight-up pick.
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Against the spread
BET NORTH CAROLINA -2.5 (-115).
While the Tar Heels haven’t been good for bettors, they are 6-7 ATS at home this season which is far better than Virginia’s 2-7-1 ATS road record. The Cavaliers are also just 7-9-1 ATS against conference opponents and 1-3 ATS following a loss as well, so they do not bounce back well.
The Tar Heels have the individual shotmakers to score with G RJ Davis and G Caleb Love as their starting backcourt. If they can make timely buckets, which seems more likely from the duo at home, they should be able to keep separation over the top-10 side.
Back the team with the more dynamic offensive creators and bet NORTH CAROLINA -2.5 (-115).
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 130.5 (-110).
The Tar Heels are 2-10 O/U in their last 12 games — a span that started with a 58-point effort against the Cavaliers. Virginia has also gone Under in 3 straight games, scoring 61 or fewer points in all 3. These teams are a combined 14-20 O/U in conference play.
While the shotmakers will make a difference, the Virginia pace will slow this game up and limit transition opportunities. Considering the Cavaliers rank 331st in shots per game (53.2), do not expect many chances to score — mainly due to the tempo.
With that in mind, back the UNDER 130.5 (-110).
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