It’s a Thursday night matchup at 7:30 p.m. ET between the Virginia Cavaliers (2-2, 0-2 ACC) and Miami Hurricanes (2-2, 0-0) at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Fla. Below, we look at the Virginia vs. Miami odds and lines, and make our expert college football picks, predictions and bets.
Virginia enters this game with one of the top passing offenses in the country—QB Brennan Armstrong leads the nation with 426.3 passing yards per game—but the rest of this Cavaliers team is lacking. The rushing attack is averaging just 115.5 yards per game (T-109 nationally) while the defense is coughing up 6.9 yards per play (118th).
Miami star QB D’Eriq King is questionable for this matchup, and while his backups combined to throw for 417 yards and 5 touchdowns last week, that was against FCS Central Connecticut State. Both the Hurricanes’ offense (4.7 yards per play) and defense (5.2) rank outside the top 80 through three games against FBS teams.
Virginia at Miami odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:30 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Virginia +170 (bet $100 to win $170) | Miami -210 (bet $210 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Virginia +4.5 (-107) | Miami -4.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 62.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Virginia at Miami odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Virginia 31, Miami 28
Money line
When we throw away Miami’s FCS win last week, there just isn’t much to get excited about. There’s no shame in losing to No. 1 Alabama as they did in Week 1, but the Hurricanes barely beat Appalachian State 25-23 and looked overmatched against Michigan State in a 38-17 loss in Week 3.
There’s plenty of value in taking VIRGINA (+170) on the money line.
Against the spread
Neither team has fared well against the spread this year. Miami is 0-3 against FBS teams while Virginia is 0-2 against the number in the ACC. The difference here, other than King’s injury status, is Virginia’s top strength (its passing game) going up against Miami’s 92nd-ranked pass defense.
Look for VIRGINIA +4.5 (-107) to put up points and cover.
Over/Under
This is a lofty line that certainly accounts for the Cavaliers’ passing attack and bad defense. Miami hit the Under in each of its three FBS games, while Virginia went Over just once in its first four games thanks to a superb performance by UNC QB Sam Howell in Week 3.
The uncertainty of King paired with a high number has us leaning toward the UNDER 62.5 (-110).
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