The Vanderbilt Commodores (3-1) welcome the Alabama Crimson Tide (3-0) Saturday. Kickoff from Bryant–Denny Stadium is set for 7:30 p.m. ET (SEC Network). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Vanderbilt vs. Alabama odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
The Commodores are coming into this game with 3 wins under their belt. Unfortunately, their lone loss was by 20 points to Wake Forest. QB Sam Hartman lit up Vanderbilt for 300 yards and 4 TDs.
Vanderbilt is led by QB AJ Swann who had 4 TDs on just 18 completions last weekend. RB Re’Mahn Davis had 116 rushing yards in the team’s 38-28 win over Northern Illinois.
As for Alabama, it was in arguably the most-thrilling game of the season, beating Texas 20-19. Since then, it beat LA-Monroe 63-7. Its other win was a 55-0 blowout victory over Utah State.
The Crimson Tide are led by QB Bryce Young who has 644 yards and 6 TDs in 3 games. Alabama is No. 2 in the AFCA Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
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Vanderbilt at Alabama odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:16 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Off the board
- Against the spread (ATS): Vanderbilt +40.5 (-110) | Alabama -40.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 58.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
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Vanderbilt at Alabama picks and predictions
Prediction
Alabama 45, Vanderbilt 10
Money line
PASS.
There aren’t money line odds for a reason, and that’s because Alabama is expected to win with ease. Even if there were odds, pass on the money line value.
Against the spread
BET VANDERBILT +40.5 (-110).
There are a few reasons to back Vanderbilt here. One reason is simply that everyone is going to be on Alabama here.
At the time of writing, 87% of tickets are on Alabama with just 55% of the money. You want to be on the side of the sportsbooks more often than not in sports betting.
Couple that with a trend figured out by Evan Abrams who noted that “SEC favorites of 35 or more points in conference games are 20-0 SU, but 6-14 ATS.”
Young has been a stud, but having put up just 20 points against their lone Power 5 opponent so far this season, there’s not much reason to believe Alabama will get out to a quick enough start to win by more than 40.
Vanderbilt is not a great SEC side and likely will get destroyed, but this margin is wide. It’d be smart to back the Commodores to cover it, especially as they’ve started off the season better than expected.
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 58.5 (-108).
With DE Will Anderson Jr. in their defensive front, Alabama has an absolutely dominant defense and should be able to hold Vanderbilt scoreless until garbage time sets in.
Alabama has topped 50 in 2 of its 3 games but would’ve gone under this total in 2 of the 3 as well.
With a similar mindset, 98% of the tickets are on the over per pregame.com yet it has gone down from a 61 open. The reverse-line movement should make bettors feel more comfortable with the under.
Having Anderson on the field and a struggling Young doesn’t hurt either.
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