Two of the best squads from each conference meet Saturday when the Miami Heat (6-2) host the Utah Jazz (7-1) for a 7 p.m. ET tip-off at FTX Arena. Below, we look at the Jazz vs. Heat odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.
Utah is a winner of three in a row, defeating the Atlanta Hawks, Sacramento Kings and Milwaukee Bucks (2-1 ATS) after losing its first game of the season at the Chicago Bulls on Oct. 30.
The Jazz are 6-2 ATS and 2-6 O/U this year.
Miami had its five-game winning streak snapped Thursday with a 95-78 loss to the Boston Celtics. Heat wing Jimmy Butler is playing the best basketball of his career thus far as he ranks third in PER and first in Win Shares.
These teams split their regular-season series last year 1-1 with the home team winning and covering each game.
Jazz at Heat odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:55 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Jazz +110 (bet $100 to win $115) | Heat -135 (bet $140 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Jazz +2.5 (-112) | Heat -2.5 (-108)
- Over/Under (O/U): 210.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)
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Jazz at Heat key injuries
Jazz
- SG Donovan Mitchell (ankle) questionable
- PF Royce O’Neal (ankle) questionable
- PF Rudy Gay (heel) out
Heat
- PG Kyle Lowry (ankle) questionable
- SF Max Strus (knee) out
Jazz at Heat odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Jazz 106, Heat 102
Money line
PASS even though I “lean” towards Utah plus the points because we don’t know who’s suiting up for both teams at the moment. The Heat could be without Lowry and the Jazz without Mitchell.
Against the spread
“LEAN” to the JAZZ +2.5 (-112) because Lowry’s possible absence would negatively affect Miami more so than Mitchell’s absence for Utah.
Don’t get me wrong, Mitchell is a better player but the Heat don’t have a traditional PG outside of Lowry. Furthermore, the Jazz have too many sharpshooters to continue their struggles from behind the arc.
Utah is attempting the second-most 3-pointers per game and Miami is allowing the most 3-point attempts per game. The Heat runs the risk of getting torched should they allow a bunch of 3-pointers vs. the Jazz.
Also, Utah has the highest offensive FT/FGA rate in the Association and Miami has the third-worst defensive FT/FGA rate.
The bottom line is I have a lot more confidence in the JAZZ +2.5 (-110) executing their offense based on the unofficial injury reports.
Over/Under
“LEAN” to the UNDER 210.5 (-107) since Miami plays at the third-slowest pace in the league and Utah has the best defensive efficiency despite having the lowest defensive turnover rate.
We’ll most likely see a bunch of long Miami possessions that end in contested mid-range jumpers. Plus the Heat are actually higher ranked in defensive efficiency than the Jazz. Plus these are both great rebounding teams so I don’t see many easy putbacks or second-chance points for either side.
But, I’m not ready to put a full unit on the UNDER 211.5 (-110) because I’m waiting for the final injury reports.
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