The NBA’s second-and third-best teams by net rating meet when the Utah Jazz (30-16) visit the Golden State Warriors (33-13) Sunday. Tip-off at the Chase Center is set for 8:30 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Jazz vs. Warriors odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Utah snapped a two-game losing skid by defeating the Detroit Pistons 111-101 Friday but failed to cover as 14.5-point favorites.
In the last 14 days, the Jazz are just 2-4 straight-up (SU) and 1-5 against the spread (ATS) with a minus-0.3 adjusted net rating (ranked 18th) and the worst ATS margin at minus-11.4, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).
Golden State eked past the Houston Rockets 105-103 at home Friday thanks to a G Stephen Curry buzzer-beater but couldn’t cover as 13-point favorites.
Over the past two weeks, the Warriors are 4-4 SU and 3-5 ATS with a plus-2.1 adjusted net rating (ranked 12th) and the 25th-ranked ATS margin at minus-2.8, per CTG.
The Warriors have won and covered three straight meetings with the Jazz, which includes a 123-116 victory in Utah on New Year’s Day.
Jazz at Warriors odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:45 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Jazz +170 (bet $100 to win $170) | Warriors -210 (bet $210 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Jazz +5.5 (-120) | Warriors -5.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 219.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)
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Jazz at Warriors key injuries
Jazz
- SG Bojan Bogdanovic (finger) probable
- SG Donovan Mitchell (concussion) out
- C Rudy Gobert (ankle) questionable
- C Hassan Whiteside (reconditioning) questionable
Warriors
- PF Draymond Green (calf) out
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Jazz at Warriors odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Warriors 111, Jazz 104
Money line
PASS since these are two of the most efficient teams in the NBA, so the Warriors (-165) is too expensive despite how poorly the Jazz (+170) have been playing recently.
Against the spread
“LEAN” to the WARRIORS -5.5 (-105) for a half-unit, which would be upgraded to a full unit if Gobert misses this game.
The Jazz +5.5 (-120) are already going to be without their leading scorer in Mitchell and Gobert grades in the 94th percentile of bigs in adjusted on/off net rating, per CTG.
Furthermore, the Jazz run the highest rate of pick-and-roll (PnR) offense. Gobert is key to Utah’s PnR action. Also, the Warriors have the best PnR defensive efficiency versus ball handlers.
On top of that, Golden State has performed much better against top-10 teams in adjusted net rating than Utah.
The Warriors are second in adjusted net rating versus top-10 teams (CTG) and 13-6 ATS versus teams above-.500 (5-1 ATS at home).
Whereas the Jazz are 4-11 ATS versus teams above-.500 (2-4 ATS on the road) and have the 22nd-ranked ATS margin at minus-3.1 versus top-10 teams (CTG).
Finally, since the beginning of last season, Utah is an NBA-worst 2-5 ATS as a road underdog with the worst ATS margin at minus-4.6.
On the other hand, Golden State is an NBA’s best 28-15-1 ATS as a home favorite with a plus-3.4 ATS margin (ranked second) over that time span.
Over/Under
BET the UNDER 219.5 (-107) for 1 unit as my favorite wager in the Jazz-Warriors game.
As previously mentioned, Utah is definitely without its best shot creator and could be without an elite rim runner and offensive rebounder (Gobert).
Also, Golden State is ranked 27th in adjusted offensive rating over the past two weeks but fourth in adjusted defensive rating (per CTG).
Lastly, the Under has cashed in three of Utah’s past four games, the Jazz are 9-12-1 O/U on the road and the Warriors are 7-15-2 O/U as a home favorite.
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