The U.S. women’s national team has not met high expectations thus far at the World Cup, but they’re still very much on track to advance out of Group E.
Their opening 3-0 win over Vietnam set them on their way, and while their 1-1 draw with the Netherlands raised plenty of questions, getting to four points from two games is a really good recipe for a place in the knockout round. Moreover, with the USWNT being heavily favored to beat Portugal in their group finale, the team is in pole position to win the group.
That said, pole position doesn’t guarantee you win the race, and between upsets popping up all over this tournament and a wobbly performance against the Dutch, USWNT fans have every reason to want to know about their knockout round scenarios…and also how to avoid a shocking early exit.
We crunched the numbers so you don’t have to. Here’s what the USWNT is looking at, based on all three possible outcomes of their upcoming clash with Portugal (3:00 a.m. Eastern, Fox, Telemundo).
USWNT beats Portugal
A win over Portugal just before the sun rises on the east coast Tuesday morning would assure the U.S. of a spot in the knockout round, and would make it very likely that they’re going through as group winners.
That result would see the USWNT finish with seven points and a plus-four goal difference at a minimum. Just about the only way the Netherlands could nose ahead would be to beat Vietnam by at least three more goals than the U.S. margin of victory over Portugal.
So for example, if the USWNT defeats Portugal 2-0, the Netherlands would need to put up at least a 5-0 scoreline against the Vietnamese to have a chance to win the group. Anything less, and the USWNT would finish in first on goal difference. That would send them to Sydney for an August 6 round of 16 clash with the runner-up from Group G.
If the Dutch win is by three goals more than the USWNT’s, the Oranje would claim the group instead. In that case, the U.S. would fly to Melbourne instead, and take on the winner of Group G on August 6.
There is the potential for some tiebreaker drama here. For example, if the Dutch margin of victory is only two goals more than that of the USWNT, both teams would finish level on points, and on goal difference. In that case, total goals scored by both teams would be the second tiebreaker.
Some common scorelines could cause a dramatic and highly unusual situation to unfold here. As an example, if the U.S. wins 1-0 and the Netherlands takes a 3-0 decision in the other game, the teams would have the same point total, goal difference, and goals scored. FIFA has more tiebreakers after that, but the next three (head-to-head, goal difference in head-to-head games, and goals scored in head-to-head games) clearly don’t change anything, because the U.S. and Netherlands tied 1-1.
That would bring us to fair play points, in which bookings collected as a team are tallied up on the following scoring system:
- Yellow card: -1 point
- Indirect red card (second yellow card): -3 points
- Direct red card: -4 points
- Yellow card and direct red card: -5 points
Why are the points negative? Let’s not worry ourselves about why FIFA does whatever they do.
The USWNT is currently a minus-two on this scale, while the Netherlands have a score of minus-one. If the scores set up in a way where this finish is possible, we’re all going to have to count yellow cards in both games on top of everything else.
USWNT draws
All due respect to Portugal, who will be tough and organized, but this would be a troubling result.
However, let’s stick to math for a second rather than soccer analysis. This would put the U.S. on five points, lock in a plus-three goal difference, and would guarantee a spot in the next round, as it would keep the Portuguese behind the USWNT. With Vietnam’s maximum point total being three, the U.S. would go through.
However, they would probably be going through as the group runners-up, with the Netherlands heavily favored against Vietnam. The USWNT would need Vietnam to produce a Jamaica vs. France-level shock in getting a result against the Dutch. In that case, the Netherlands would also finish with five points, but the current goal difference edge the USWNT has would give them first place.
If Vietnam managed to beat the Netherlands in this scenario, the U.S. would win the group and Portugal would climb over the Dutch on goal difference (they’d have a plus-one, while the best Netherlands GD with a loss would be zero).
USWNT loses
A 1W-1D-1L record would represent the USWNT’s worst showing in a World Cup group stage, and would almost certainly be followed by a coaching change and plenty of recriminations and fallout at U.S. Soccer.
It would not, however, guarantee elimination. Believe it or not, the U.S. could fall to Portugal and still go through.
It would take a miracle, though. A loss would see the USWNT finish on four points and (at best) a plus-two goal difference. Portugal, on six points, would definitely be ahead of the U.S., and the only way through would be a Netherlands loss to Vietnam. In that case, you’d have the U.S. and Netherlands level on four points, with Vietnam eliminated on three.
Goal difference could become a factor if the Dutch loss is by just one goal. The U.S. would have to not just lose, but get steamrolled, to end up being eliminated in that scenario.
However, a Vietnam win over the Netherlands is…let’s be generous and just call it “unlikely.” Most likely, the Oranje will be up there on seven points, meaning that a U.S. loss to Portugal would likely be just as catastrophic as you’re probably thinking.
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