The Arizona State Sun Devils (5-3, 3-2 in Pac-12) hosts the USC Trojans (4-4, 3-3) in a conference clash at Sun Devil Stadium Saturday. The kickoff is scheduled for 10:30 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the USC vs. Arizona State odds and lines, and make our expert college football picks, predictions and bets.
USC bounced back after back-to-back losses to beat the Arizona Wildcats 41-34 last Saturday but failed to cover as 22-point home favorites.
It’s been a tumultuous season for the Trojans after firing former head coach Clayton Helton following a loss to the Stanford Cardinal on Sept. 11. USC is 4-4 ATS and 5-3 O/U and the 49th-toughest schedule, according to USA TODAY’s Jeff Sagarin.
Arizona State has lost two straight games to the Utah Utes and Washington State Cougars after winning three in a row over Pac-12 teams.
The Sun Devils are tied atop the Pac-12 with the Oregon State Beavers in yards per play and allow the second-fewest yards per play on defense. Arizona State is 3-5 ATS and 3-5 O/U with the 66th-ranked strength of schedule according to Sagarin.
The Trojans have beaten the Sun Devils in two straight meetings but Arizona State is 2-0-1 ATS vs. USC since hiring head coach Herm Edwards in 2018. USC junior QB Kedon Slovis has a 73.4% completion rate with a 6 TD:2 INT ratio and a 162.9 passer efficiency rating in two career games vs. ASU.
USC at Arizona State odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 9:50 p.m. ET.
- Money line: USC +260 (bet $100 to win $260) | Arizona State -340 (bet $340 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): USC +9.5 (-108) | Arizona State -9.5 (-112)
- Over/Under (O/U): 61.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!
USC at Arizona State odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Arizona State 37, USC 21
Money line
PASS because Arizona State (-340) is way too expensive for a regular-season favorite in a conference game. Don’t get me wrong, the Sun Devils should cruise in this game, but the juice isn’t worth the squeeze.
Against the spread
BET 1 unit on ARIZONA STATE -9.5 (-112) because there’s been “sharp line movement” that has pushed the Sun Devils from an 8-point favorite on the opener up to the current number.
Furthermore, Arizona State dwarfs USC in efficiency. Football Outsiders ranks the Sun Devils 38th in net drive efficiency and 17th in net points per play. While the Trojans rank 79th in net points per play and 75th in net drive efficiency.
Also, there wasn’t much to USC’s offense other than Slovis’s connection with future pro-WR Drake London who has 88 catches with 1,084 receiving yards with seven touchdowns in eight games this season. Unfortunately for USC, London is sidelined for the rest of the season with an ankle injury.
Arizona State ran all over USC’s defense last season and the Sun Devils’ ground game is even better this year while the Trojans’ run defense is worse. I see ARIZONA STATE -9.5 (-115) scoring with ease and USC unable to keep up without its superstar WR and with Slovis having a down year.
Over/Under
“LEAN” to the UNDER 61.5 (-115) for a small wager if at all as a fade against a market that’s hammering the Over at a 90-plus percent clip at the time of publishing, according to Pregame.com. A contrarian mindset can be profitable in sports betting because 90% of the public doesn’t beat the House.
Finally, the bottom line is last year’s USC-Arizona State meeting stayed Under the 57-point total despite Slovis playing much better and having two wide receivers that won’t be there Saturday.
If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.
Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
College sports coverage from USA TODAY Sports Media Group:
Alabama / Arkansas / Auburn / Colorado / Florida / Georgia / LSU / Michigan / Michigan State / Notre Dame / Ohio State / Oklahoma / Oregon / Penn State / Rutgers / Tennessee / Texas / USC / Wisconsin / College Football News
Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1622]