It is mid-July, a time in the college football calendar dominated by recruiting, and only recruiting (and I guess the head coach situation at Northwestern).
This cycle is unlike any I can remember, with Luke Fickell in his first full cycle as head coach, the top six in-state recruits committing elsewhere and what is trending towards a good class, but not necessarily great.
That was one of the calling cards of the Fickell hire: the ability to elevate Wisconsin’s recruiting status and get the program competing with the bigwigs in the Big Ten. I am not writing this piece to say that isn’t currently happening, or won’t happen in the future. But an optimist is able to see the early returns and be quite pleased, while at the same time, a pessimist can see the top in-state recruits going elsewhere and find cause for concern.
I fall in neither of those camps. The class to me is solid, but does leave a bit to be desired at the top end. The collection of quarterback (four-star Mabrey Mettauer), skill positions and running back is hard to not be impressed by, although the lack of high-level talent along the defensive trenches will need to be addressed.
The 2024 cycle isn’t complete. So I’ll wait a few months before officially unveiling blanket statements about the group. But after initially comparing Fickell’s group to those of the Paul Chryst era one month ago, I thought to return to the topic with Wisconsin’s updated numbers in the class.
Here is the full breakdown of this year’s class and its direct comparison to 2015-2023:
- 2024 (so far): 18 commits, No. 18 nationally, 33% BCR, 88.53 average player rating
- 2023: 15 commits, No. 58 nationally, 20% BCR, 87.32 average player rating
- 2022: 15 commits, No. 44 nationally, 13% BCR, 87.66 average player rating
- 2021: 21 commits, No. 16 nationally, 42% BCR, 89.31 average player rating
- 2020: 20 commits, No. 26 nationally, 25% BCR, 87.83 average player rating
- 2019: 19 commits, No. 28 nationally, 21% BCR, 88.21 average player rating
- 2018: 20 commits, No. 46 nationally, 5% BCR, 86.48 average player rating
- 2017: 18 commits, No. 39 nationally, 11% BCR, 85.82 average player rating
- 2016: 26 commits, No. 35 nationally, 11% BCR, 84.96 average player rating
- 2015: 19 commits, No. 41 nationally, 5% BCR, 85.5 average player rating
Again, as I wrote in a previous piece, it should be noted that 2023 was a mixture of Fickell and Chryst, with Fickell flipping a few of his four-star Cincinnati commitments. A key takeaway here should also be the time it took for Chryst’s classes to crack an average player rating of 88. Fickell’s first class is already at that point, with improvement sure to come in the future.
The number that sticks out initially isn’t the national ranking or average player rating, both which would rank second behind Chryst’s phenomenal 2021 group. It’s the rising blue-chip ratio of the class. That ratio stood at only 14% one month ago, but thanks to four four-star commitments in the last few weeks it has now risen above 30%.
The 2024 class is an encouraging start to the Luke Fickell era, with promising talent on the offensive side of the ball and in the secondary. Plus the transfer portal exists, so any recruiting misses can be negated with a good portal cycle.
What the current returns on the recruiting trail should signal is a strong floor under Fickell, with the ceiling still unknown. If the Badgers burst on the scene this season and the new era continues to look promising, more recruiting wins should immediately follow.
If the cycle ended today, Wisconsin would have its best recruiting class since 2021, a group that would rank second overall since Chryst took over in 2015. The reasons for excitement are legitimate, despite the lack of in-state success in the cycle.