In a heavyweight bout on in Saturday’s main event, Curtis Blaydes and Derrick Lewis meet at UFC on ESPN+ 49 – also known as UFC Vegas 19 and UFC Fight Night 185 – at the UFC’s APEX Facility in Las Vegas. The prelims kick off at 5 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by the main card on ESPN+ at 8 p.m. Below, we analyze the UFC on ESPN+ 49 odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
Blaydes vs. Lewis: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:27 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Blaydes -450 (bet $450 to win $100) | Lewis +340 (bet $100 to win $340)
- Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over +105 | Under -125)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +250 | No -300)
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Blaydes vs. Lewis: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Records: Blaydes 14-2 | Lewis 24-7
Fight result (2-way line or money line)
Blaydes (-450) steps into the octagon as an overwhelming favorite in the main event over Lewis. He has just a one-inch height and reach advantage, but the real advantage is in the stats.
Blaydes is ahead 3.55 to 2.64 in significant strikes landed per minute, and 53.44 to 50.84 in significant strikes-accuracy percentage. The real difference is in his ability to get Lewis to the canvas as Blaydes has an overwhelming 6.98 to 0.54 takedown-average lead, and 55.66 to 26.92 takedown-accuracy percentage advantage.
While Blaydes will cost you four and a half times your potential return on the 2-way line, he is a much better play on the 5-way line. Back BLAYDES BY KO/TKO, DQ OR SUBMISSION (-160) for a better value.
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Over/Under (O/U)
Four of the past six bouts for Lewis have finished inside the distance, while Blaydes has had stoppages in four of his past six, too. However, this one should go past the midway point. Lewis might be an overwhelming underdog, but he is no slouch. He’ll make Blaydes work for this victory. OVER 2.5 ROUNDS (+105) is worth a look, but it won’t be much further than that. It’s a cheaper play than OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (-225), although the latter is worth a small-unit play, too, especially if you can tie it into a parlay.
In the main event, I also like a three-round betting block of BLAYDES IN ROUND 2 (+400), BLAYDES IN ROUND 3 (+800) and BLAYDES IN ROUND 4 (+1300). Yes, you’ll lose two of those ends, but if he wins between Round 2-4, you’ll be well ahead.
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