In a women’s flyweight bout, Katlyn Chookagian and Jessica Andrade lock horns at UFC on ESPN+ 38 Saturday at the UFC’s Fight Island facility in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. The prelims kick off at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by the main card set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Chookagian (14-3) will tower over Andrade (20-8) by eight inches, and she holds a six-inch reach advantage, as well. She’ll be looking to keep the fight upright, which is her best bet. She lost to Valentina Shevchenko in a title fight back on Feb. 8 on the UFC 247 card, getting knocked out in the third round. She got revenge in the best way possible, topping Valentina’s sister, Antonina Shevchenko, with a unanimous decision victory on May 30. Nine of her 10 fights at the UFC level have ended up going the distance.
Andrade is a little ball of power, and she is solid going toe-to-toe but even better on the canvas. She holds a 6.40 to 4.19 significant strikes-landed per minute advantage, and a 49.67 to 35.03 significant strikes-accuracy percentage lead. In addition, she is well ahead 3.02 to 0.31 in takedown average, and 57.14 to 15.79 in takedown-accuracy percentage. She fell to Zhang Weili in a title fight by KO/TKO in 42 seconds on Aug. 31, 2019, and she lost by way of a split-decision against Rose Namajunas on July 11, 2020. A win over Chookagian is no guarantee, either.
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Katlyn Chookagian vs. Jessica Andrade betting odds
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:01 a.m. ET.
ANDRADE (-162) is the better overall fighter, and she has way more possible avenues to victory than Chookagian (+135). Andrade has had three of her past four fights end inside the distance, but five of her previous eight have ended up going to the judges’ cards. Chookagian almost always goes the distance, so taking YES (-189): “WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE?” is definitely a sound play. And I like ANDRADE BY DECISION (+200) for a potential double-up opportunity, as I just feel she is more well-rounded.
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Also see:
- UFC on ESPN+ 38 predictions (MMA Junkie)
- UFC on ESPN+ 38: 5 burning questions (MMA Junkie)
- MMA Junkie – The latest UFC/MMA coverage
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