Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public seem to be favoring the former champion, listing Whittaker -120 and Till +100 as of this writing.
Between the way England backs its fighters at the betting window to the way this sport treats a losing fighter, then I guess it’s no surprise to see that this fight is closely lined with a majority of the money coming in on Till.
That said, despite my official record of picking against him more than in his favor, I can totally understand Till’s appeal, as there’s a lot to like in this spot. Whether you’re a fan of Till’s newfound attitude and possibilities at 185 pounds or are sold on the narrative that counter striking could be Whittaker’s kryptonite, I can’t blame anyone for taking a flyer on this underdog.
I, however, cannot ignore my own previous analysis around both Till’s fight with Masvidal and how that potentially factors in here. As stated on a previous page (as well as previous breakdowns), Whittaker carries multiple setups to his left hand that I see having play against a southpaw who offers minimal countering threats from his right side.
Heck. Even southpaws with potent check-right hooks can be subject to non-shifting left hands—just look at Michael Bisping’s rematch with Luke Rockhold. I’ve spoken to striking analysts like Connor Ruebusch (who does a great job at drawing out this theory), as I think similar scenarios could appear on Saturday.
Sure, Till could absolutely put the former champion on ice skates with one of his well timed counters, as that reality shouldn’t shock any of us given his skill ceiling and age.
I just don’t see enough check hooks (or counter hooks, in general) for me to confidently side with the Englishman here. For that reason, I’ll pick Whittaker to avoid the patent crosses and uppercuts from Till, eventually finding a finish after a brief feeling-out period in the first round.
Prediction: Whittaker inside the distance