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In a 5-round lightweight bout in the main event, Grant Dawson and Bobby Green meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 229 — also known as UFC Vegas 80 — at UFC Apex. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s around the UFC Fight Night 229: Dawson vs. Green odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The prelims can be viewed on ESPN+ starting at 4 p.m. ET with the main card following on ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET.
Records: Dawson (20-1-1) | Green (30-14-1)
Dawson takes the walk looking to avoid taking his first-ever loss at the UFC level. He is 8-0-1 in 9 bouts since arriving at the UFC, with his lone blemish a draw against Ricky Glenn in Oct. 2021. He has recorded 2 finishes, both via submission, in the past 3 fights, although his last outing resulted in a unanimous-decision win over Damir Ismagulov in July.
Green picked up a submission win over Tony Ferguson at UFC 291 last time out in late July. That followed up a no-contest against Jared Gordon, as he accidentally head-butted Gordon going in for a jab. The win over Ferguson was huge, snapping a 2-bout losing streak and the no-contest. He has won just 3 times in the past 8 bouts, losing twice via KO/TKO, and twice via unanimous decision.
Green has an overwhelming 6.14-to-2.99 significant strikes landed per minute, while Dawson is much more accurate at 63.90% to just 54.88% for the challenger. Dawson also dominates in takedowns, leading 3.70-to-1.21 in takedown average, and 1.48-to-0.32 in submission average.
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UFC Fight Night 229: Grant Dawson vs. Bobby Green odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:45 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Dawson -490 (bet $490 to win $100) | Green +380 (bet $100 to win $380)
- Over/Under: 4.5 rounds (Over +170 | Under -220)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +180 | No -235)
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UFC Fight Night 229: Grant Dawson vs. Bobby Green picks and predictions
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
Dawson (-490) will cost you nearly 5 times your potential return, and that’s way too much risk for not nearly enough reward.
Green (+380) has struggled with consistency, and Dawson is just such a versatile fighter, capable of taking him down a number of ways. I actually like Dawson’s ability on the canvas, and see DAWSON BY SUBMISSION (+130) at plus-money for the method of victory as the much better value.
Over/Under (O/U)
Under 4.5 Rounds (-220) and No: Will the fight go the distance (-235) are each much too expensive.
Dawson has ended up getting the finish in 2 of his past 3 fights, and 5 of the past 8 outings. Green has ended up with finishes in 3 straight fights if you take out the no-contest against Gordon.
AVOID.
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