In a heavyweight bout in the main event, Derrick Lewis and Serghei Spivac meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 215 at the UFC’s APEX Facility in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the UFC Fight Night 215: Lewis vs. Spivac odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The prelims begin at 1 p.m. ET on ESPN+, and the main card starts at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Lewis, a.k.a. “The Black Beast”, has dropped 3 of the past 4 fights, all via KO/TKO, starting with a tight fight loss at UFC 265 against Ciryl Gane. Each of his past 6 fights has ended via KO/TKO, in fact, with Lewis winning 3 of the outings.
Lewis has a slight 1-inch reach advantage, but Spivac has a 3.79-to-2.57 significant strikes landed per minute lead, while landing 63.61% of his significant strikes. Spivac also has an impressive 4.09 takedown average in his 9 fights since arriving at the UFC level.
Spivac has posted KO/TKO wins against Greg Hardy and Augusto Sakai, bouncing back from a 1st-round KO/TKO loss against Tom Aspinall in Sept. 2021. He has won 5 of the past 6 fights, with just 1 of his last 5 bouts going the distance.
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UFC Fight Night 215: Lewis vs. Spivac odds
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Lewis +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Spivac -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
- Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over -113 | Under -120)
- Fight to go distance: Yes (+470) | No (-900)
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UFC Fight Night 215: Lewis vs. Spivac picks and predictions
Records: Lewis (26-10-0) | Spivac (15-3-0)
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
Spivac, a.k.a. the “Polar Bear” from Moldova, is a takedown machine. He’ll be looking to get this fight to the mat as quickly as possible. Spivac is 6-0 via submission in his 18 career pro fights, while posting 9 TKO/KO results, winning 7 of them.
However, Spivac (-200) is too expensive on the 2-way line. I don’t think he gets it done via submission, but SPIVAC BY TKO/KO (+145) is a much better play due to his punching ability. He has 4 finishes in the past 5 outings, going 3-1 via KO/TKO during the span. That makes him a good value at this price point.
Over/Under (O/U)
No (-900): Fight to go the distance is obviously way too expensive, costing you 9 times your potential return.
UNDER 1.5 ROUNDS (-120) is a good play here. Lewis is a proud veteran, but each of his past 3 fights has finished Under 1.5 rounds, and Spivac has the punching ability to make that 4 straight.
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