In a welterweight bout on the main card, Gilbert Burns will face Neil Magny Saturday at UFC 283 at Jeunesse Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 283: Burns vs. Magny odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The early prelims begin at 5:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+, with the prelims set to begin at 8 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN and the main card starting at 10 p.m. ET on Pay-Per-View (PPV).
Burns, the UFC’s 5th-ranked welterweight, has dropped 2 of his last 3 bouts but is 5-2 since returning to welterweight back in 2019. His last loss came against Khamzat Chimaev at UFC 273 in April 2022, losing by decision but earning fight of the night honors. Burns’ last victory was a decision over Stephen Thompson at UFC 264 in July 2021.
Magny, the UFC’s 12th-ranked welterweight, has won 3 of his last 4 fights. His last bout was just two months ago — a submission win over Daniel Rodriguez at UFC Fight Night 214 in November. His last loss was also by submission against Shavkat Rakhmonov at UFC on ESPN 38 in June.
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UFC 283: Burns vs. Magny odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:45 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Burns -475 (bet $475 to win $100) | Magny +360 (bet $100 to win $360)
- Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -101 | Under -135)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +105 | No -145)
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UFC 283: Burns vs. Magny picks and predictions
Records: Gilbert Burns (20-5) | Neil Magny (27-9)
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
The line is a little strong in Burns’ favor considering his recent losses, but he still is a top-5 welterweight in the UFC. He’s the safest bet to win given his striking accuracy (48%) and incredible ground game. Magny could sneak a TKO, which makes his +360 odds an attractive bet, but it’s difficult to bet against Burns, who is more of a polished fighter.
The payout for Burns at -475 is too low for a straight bet, so the better play is BURNS BY SUBMISSION (+195). Eight of Burns’ 20 wins have been by submission while Magny was submitted in 5 of his 9 losses.
Over/Under (O/U)
I don’t expect this fight to go the distance — both fighters will be looking for a finish, especially Burns who is looking to get back into the title picture. Burns has 7 victories by finish in his UFC career, and 6 of those came in the first 2 rounds. Meanwhile, Magny has been finished in the first 2 rounds 5 times in his UFC career. Don’t expect this to go past the 2nd round.
LEAN UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (-135).
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