In a bantamweight title fight in the main event, Aljamain Sterling and TJ Dillashaw meet Saturday at UFC 280 at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the UFC 280: Sterling vs. Dillashaw odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The fight can be viewed on ESPNews/ESPN+ with the prelims beginning at 10:30 a.m. ET and the main card at 2 p.m. ET on Pay-Per-View.
The defending champ Sterling takes the walk with the belt, a 1-inch height advantage and a 4-inch reach advantage. The “Funk Master” is coming off a split-decision win over Petr Yan last time out at UFC 273 in early April.
While the veteran Dillashaw holds a slight 5.26-to-4.56 significant-strikes-landed-per-minute advantage, Sterling is much more accurate at 58.72% to just 47.72% for the challenger. The ground game for both fighters is fairly equal with perhaps an ever-so-slight advantage in favor of Sterling.
Dillashaw held the bantamweight title after knocking out Cody Garbrandt not once, but twice. However, in January 2019, he was dropped down to flyweight and was knocked out in 32 seconds by Henry Cejudo, losing a chance to be a two-division champ. To make matters worse, he took the banned substance EPO to keep his energy level up while cutting weight.
Dillashaw was suspended two years for doping, but he returned to the octagon in a fight night main event July 24, 2021, and stopped Cory Sandhagen by split decision to position himself for another title shot.
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UFC 280: Sterling vs. Dillashaw odds
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:07 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Sterling -190 (bet $190 to win $100) | Dillashaw +145 (bet $100 to win $145)
- Over/Under: 4.5 rounds (Over -220 | Under +155)
- Will the fight go the distance? Yes (-180) | No (+130)
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UFC 280: Sterling vs. Dillashaw picks and predictions
Records: Sterling (21-3-0) | Dillashaw (18-4-0)
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
STERLING (-190). The cutoff price I feel comfortable betting a fighter on a 2-way line is -180. However, I’m willing to play Sterling at -190 in this one. He is the champ, and he hasn’t had a super long layoff in recent years.
Dillashaw did enough to win over two of the three judges in the Garbrandt fight, but that’s his only appearance in the octagon in over three and a half years.
Sterling is the more battle-tested fighter. He likely will have the better cardio, and he’ll be able to weather the storm and make a lot of fans happy by dumping Dillashaw.
Over/Under (O/U)
BET YES (-180): FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE.
As mentioned, -180 is the most juice I feel comfortable betting straight up.
Sterling has ended up going the distance in 3 of his past 5 fights, and he might have ended up going all the way at UFC 259 in the DQ fight against Yan.
Dillashaw went the distance in his return from suspension, and he has ended up with just 3 finishes in the past 7 fights overall.
Taking STERLING BY POINTS (+133) isn’t a bad idea, either.
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