UFC 276: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Max Holloway odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC 276 bout odds and lines between Alexander Volkanovski vs. Max Holloway, with MMA picks, tips and predictions.

In a featherweight championship bout in the co-main event, Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway meet Saturday at UFC 276 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Below, we analyze the UFC 276 Volkanovski vs. Holloway odds and lines, with picks and predictions.

The early prelims can be viewed on ESPN/ESPN+ at 6 p.m. ET, followed by the prelims on ABC/ESPN/ESPN+ at 8 p.m. The main card on Pay-Per-View starts at 10 p.m.

Volkanovski snatched the featherweight strap from Holloway at UFC 245 via unanimous decision, and he defended his title in the second installment against Holloway at UFC 251. The champ enters on an impressive 20-bout win streak, including each of his 11 fights at the UFC level since debuting in Nov. 2016.

Since arriving at the UFC, 7 of his 11 bouts have ended up needing the judges to score a winner, obviously deciding in his favor each time. That includes the first 2 fights of this trilogy.

Holloway has picked up a pair of unanimous-decision wins over Calvin Kattar and Yair Rodriguez to get one final title shot. He has ended up going the distance in each of his past 6 fights, with 3 wins during the span.

Holloway stands 5 inches taller than his Australian counterpart, but the Hawaiian fighter gives up 2.5 inches in reach. While Holloway has a slight 7.38-to-6.63 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, the champ is way more pinpoint with his strikes at 59.38% to just 48.82% for the challenger.

If Volkanovski can get this fight to the ground and pound, it’s going to be favorable for the champ, too. He has a 1.95 takedown average to just 0.31 for Holloway. While the submission average arrow points slightly in Holloway’s favor, the difference is rather negligible. Style points count, and takedowns might wow the judges in Volkanovski’s favor.

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UFC 276 Volkanovski vs. Holloway odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:40 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Volkanovski -205 (bet $205 to win $100) | Holloway +155 (bet $100 to win $155)
  • Total rounds: Over 4.5 (-260) | Under 4.5 (+180)
  • Will the fight go the distance? Yes (-210) | No (+150)

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UFC 276 Volkanovski vs. Holloway picks and predictions

Records: Volkanovski (24-1-0) | Holloway (23-6-0)

Fight result (2-way line or money line)

Volkanovski (-205) will cost you more than double your potential return, and that’s just too rich for my blood. These 2 fighters know each other well, since this is a trilogy, and Holloway (+155) will not go quietly into the night.

Instead of playing the defending champ straight up, consider playing VOLKANOVSKI BY POINTS (+120) at plus-money. Of course, if he gets the finish via knockout or submission, you’re toast. But going the distance is the best bet. Beating the same guy 3 times is difficult.

Over/Under (O/U)

While yes, I expect this to go all the way to the judges, you cannot play Yes (-210): Fight to go the distance. Risking more than 2 times your potential return is just too risky unless you can work it into a 4- or 5-way parlay to mitigate the risk somewhat.

PASS on playing this as a standalone wager.

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