In a welterweight title fight in the main event, Kamaru Usman meets Colby Covington Saturday at UFC 268 at Madison Square Garden in New York. Below, we analyze the UFC 268 Usman vs. Covington odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
The card can be viewed on ESPN+ with the early prelims at 6 p.m. ET, with the prelims on ESPN/ESPN+ at 8 p.m. The main card begins on PPV at 10 p.m. ET.
Usman is 13-0 since making his UFC debut Dec. 19, 2015. That includes a championship bout March 2, 2019, against Tyron Woodley and four successful title defenses.
Usman picked up a second-round KO/TKO against Jorge Masvidal at UFC 261 last time out April 24, and he has knockout wins in three of his last four outings. Prior to his last two KO/TKO wins, nine of his previous 11 fights had gone the distance.
Covington bounced back from a fifth-round KO/TKO loss to Usman Dec. 13, 2019, at UFC 245 with a KO/TKO victory over Tyron Woodley in September 2020. He is looking to get back on top of a division for the first time since June 9, 2018, when he topped Rafael Dos Anjos at UFC 225. While he has two finishes in his last two fights, he went the distance in his five prior bouts.
UFC 268 Usman vs. Covington: Odds and lines
Odds via Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:20 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Usman -300 (bet $300 to win $100) | Covington +225 (bet $100 to win $225)
- Over/Under: 3.5 rounds (Over -160 | Under +115)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +105 | No -145)
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UFC 268 Usman vs. Covington: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Records: Usman (19-1-0) | Covington (16-2-0)
Fight result (2-way line or money line)
Usman (-300) should be able to push past Covington for the second consecutive time, but you can’t wager three times your potential return. Instead, get more specific.
USMAN BY TKO/KO (+122) is a much better value at plus money. He has won three of his last four fights via KO/TKO, including his first meeting with Covington in 2019.
Over/Under (O/U)
NO (-145): FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE is the way to go since I believe Usman gets the finish. UNDER 3.5 ROUNDS (+115) is also worth a plus. Yes, he had to go into the fifth round to drop Covington last time, but each of his last two KO/TKO wins finished in the first half of the fight. He hasn’t been going deep into fights recently, and this one will be no different.
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