UFC 261 predictions: Are we picking any upsets in the three title fights?

Check out our staff members’ picks for the UFC 261 main card in Jacksonville, Fla.

Usman
vs.
Masvidal
Weili
vs.
Namajunas
Shevchenko
vs.
Andrade
Hall
vs.
Weidman
Crute
vs.
Smith
MMA Junkie readers’
consensus picks
2021: 46-29
usman2021
Usman
(71%)
weili2021
Weili
(57%)
shevchenko2021
Shevchenko
(91%)
hall2021
Hall
(64%)
crute2021
Crute
(63%)
John Morgan
@MMAjunkieJohn
2021: 49-26
usman2021
Usman
weili2021
Weili
shevchenko2021
Shevchenko
hall2021
Hall
crute2021
Crute
Ken Hathaway
@kenshathaway
2021: 48-27
trophy copy 2018 Champion
usman2021
Usman
weili2021
Weili
shevchenko2021
Shevchenko
hall2021
Hall
crute2021
Crute
Danny Segura
@dannyseguratv
2021: 47-28
usman2021
Usman
weili2021
Weili
shevchenko2021
Shevchenko
weidman2021
Weidman
smith2021
Smith
Simon Samano
@SJSamano
2021: 47-28
usman2021
Usman
weili2021
Weili
shevchenko2021
Shevchenko
hall2021
Hall
crute2021
Crute
George Garcia
@MMAjunkieGeorge
2021: 47-28
masvidal2021
Masvidal
namajunas2021
Namajunas
shevchenko2021
Shevchenko
hall2021
Hall
smith2021
Smith
Nolan King
@mma_kings
2021: 45-30
usman2021
Usman
namajunas2021
Namajunas
shevchenko2021
Shevchenko
hall2021
Hall
crute2021
Crute
Brian Garcia
@thegoze
2021: 45-30
trophy copy 2017 Champion
masvidal2021
Masvidal
namajunas2021
Namajunas
shevchenko2021
Shevchenko
hall2021
Hall
smith2021
Smith
Dan Tom
@DanTomMMA
2021: 44-31
trophy copy 2020 Champion
usman2021
Usman
weili2021
Weili
shevchenko2021
Shevchenko
hall2021
Hall
crute2021
Crute
Matt Erickson
@MMAjunkieMatt
2021: 43-32
usman2021
Usman
weili2021
Weili
shevchenko2021
Shevchenko
hall2021
Hall
crute2021
Crute
Abbey Subhan
@kammakaze
2021: 42-33
usman2021
Usman
weili2021
Weili
shevchenko2021
Shevchenko
hall2021
Hall
crute2021
Crute
Mike Bohn
@MikeBohnMMA
2021: 41-34
trophy copy 2014 Champion
usman2021
Usman
weili2021
Weili
shevchenko2021
Shevchenko
hall2021
Hall
smith2021
Smith
Farah Hannoun
@Farah_Hannoun
2021: 39-36
usman2021
Usman
namajunas2021
Namajunas
shevchenko2021
Shevchenko
hall2021
Hall
crute2021
Crute
BetMGM
Betting Favorites
usman2021
Usman -400
weili2021
Weili -200
shevchenko2021
Shevchenko -500
weidman2021
Weidman -125
crute2021
Crute -200

The UFC is back in front of a full arena of fans for the first time since before the COVID-19 pandemic shut things down, and there are three title fights atop the card.

UFC 261 takes place Saturday at VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, Fla. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on ESPN and early prelims on ESPN+.

(Click here to open a PDF of the staff picks grid in a separate window.)

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In the main event, welterweight champion [autotag]Kamaru Usman[/autotag] (18-1 MMA, 13-0 UFC) takes on [autotag]Jorge Masvidal[/autotag] (35-14 MMA, 12-7 UFC) in a rematch from 2020. Usman is a heavy favorite at -400 at BetMGM, and he’s got a big 10-2 lead in the picks from our 12 editors, writers, videographers and radio hosts.

In the co-feature, women’s strawweight champ [autotag]Zhang Weili[/autotag] (21-1 MMA, 5-0 UFC) puts her title on the line against former champ [autotag]Rose Namajunas[/autotag] (9-4 MMA, 7-3 UFC). Weili is the smallest favorite among the champions, but still sits at -200. She has doubled up on Namajunas in our picks at 8-4.

And in the third title fight, women’s flyweight champ [autotag]Valentina Shevchenko[/autotag] (20-3 MMA, 9-2 UFC) is a 5-1 favorite against former strawweight champion and now 125-pound challenger [autotag]Jessica Andrade[/autotag] (21-8 MMA, 12-6 UFC). Shevchenko is our only unanimous pick on the card at 12-0.

Also on the main card, [autotag]Uriah Hall[/autotag] (16-9 MMA, 9-7 UFC) takes on former middleweight champion [autotag]Chris Weidman[/autotag] (15-5 MMA, 11-5 UFC). And though the odds have shifted from Hall as a slight favorite to Weidman as a slight favorite at -125, our pickers are going with Hall at a big 11-1 clip.

And to open the main card, [autotag]Jimmy Crute[/autotag] (12-1 MMA, 4-1 UFC) takes on former light heavyweight title challenger [autotag]Anthony Smith[/autotag] (34-16 MMA, 9-6 UFC). Crute is a 2-1 favorite and has an 8-4 picks lead.

In the MMA Junkie reader consensus picks, Usman (71 percent), Weili (57 percent), Shevchenko (91 percent), Hall (64 percent) and Crute (63 percent) are the choices.

Check out all the picks above.

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